棉花：缺乏有效驱动，期价冲高回落

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating 2. Core View of the Report - Cotton futures prices lacked effective drivers and retreated after a rally. The cotton market faced a complex situation with various factors influencing supply and demand, and the overall market sentiment was neutral [1][5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - Futures Data: CF2509 closed at 13,740 yuan/ton with a daily decline of 0.15% and a night - session closing price of 13,730 yuan/ton with a decline of 0.07%. CY2509 closed at 19,990 yuan/ton with a daily decline of 0.57% and a night - session closing price of 20,010 yuan/ton with an increase of 0.10%. ICE US cotton 12 closed at 68.04 cents/pound with a decline of 1.85%. The trading volume of CF2509 was 456,550 lots, an increase of 205,573 lots compared to the previous day, and the open interest was 863,411 lots, a decrease of 12,095 lots. The trading volume of CY2509 was 11,405 lots, a decrease of 1,999 lots, and the open interest was 21,776 lots, an increase of 1,045 lots [1] - Warehouse Receipt Data: The number of Zhengzhou cotton warehouse receipts was 10,273, a decrease of 29, and the effective forecast was 301, an increase of 6. The number of cotton yarn warehouse receipts was 2, unchanged, and the effective forecast was 3, a decrease of 1 [1] - Spot Price Data: The price of Northern Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton was 15,060 yuan/ton, an increase of 50 yuan or 0.33% compared to the previous day. The price of Southern Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton was 14,760 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price in Shandong was 15,153 yuan/ton, an increase of 38 yuan or 0.25%. The price in Hebei was 15,109 yuan/ton, an increase of 91 yuan or 0.61%. The 3128B index was 15,154 yuan/ton, an increase of 45 yuan or 0.30%. The international cotton index M was 76.83 cents/pound, an increase of 1 cent or 0.73%. The price of pure - cotton carded yarn 32s was 20,420 yuan/ton, an increase of 40 yuan or 0.20%, and the arrival price of pure - cotton carded yarn 32s was 21,910 yuan/ton, a decrease of 23 yuan or - 0.10% [1] - Spread Data: The CF9 - 1 spread decreased by 15 yuan/ton compared to the previous day's spread. The spread between Northern Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton and CF509 increased by 70 yuan/ton [1] 3.2 Macro and Industry News - Domestic Cotton Spot: Local cotton spot trading was slightly better than last week, with most transactions based on locked basis prices. The overall basis remained stable. There were more pre - sale quotes for new cotton in the 2025/26 season in Xinjiang [2] - Domestic Cotton Textile Enterprises: The price increase of pure - cotton yarn was less than that of cotton, and the cash - flow losses of spinning enterprises widened. Downstream demand was weak, and spinning enterprises were expected to continue to accumulate inventory. The all - cotton grey fabric market had light trading, and many fabric mills continued to cut production [2] - US Cotton: ICE cotton futures fell yesterday because the US cotton planting area in the 2025/26 season was 10.12 million acres, higher than the market average forecast of 9.8 million acres and the USDA's June supply - demand report forecast of 9.87 million acres. As of June 29, the US cotton sowing progress was 95%, compared with 97% in the same period last year and a 5 - year average of 98%. The good - to - excellent rate of US cotton was 50%, up from 47% the previous week and the same as 50% in the same period last year [3][4] 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of cotton was 0, indicating a neutral outlook [5]