Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a "volatile and bullish" rating for both coking coal and coke [1][5] Core Viewpoints - With the cease - fire agreement between Israel and Iran and the signing of a trade agreement between China and the US, external risks are easing, and market sentiment is warming up. However, domestic economic data is below expectations, and the market may speculate on the Political Bureau meeting at the end of July. The implementation of crude steel production restrictions is under discussion, but steel mills are reluctant to cut production due to acceptable profits [4] - For coking coal, under the influence of safety inspections, mines and coal washing plants have reduced production, and the supply contraction has affected the inventory. The fundamentals are showing positive factors. But after the safety inspections end and mines resume production, the spot acceptance and market reaction need to be observed. The J09 contract is recommended to add positions after the coking coal correction ends, and go long on coking coal at low prices after the correction [4][5] - For coke, as coking coal stabilizes, the cost center moves up, providing strong support. The blast furnace profit remains high, and the molten iron output increases slightly, with the supply - demand situation continuing to improve [4] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Coking Coal Supply and Demand - The operating rates of 523 mines and 110 coal washing plants decreased to 82.48% (-2.01) and 59.1% (-2.24) respectively. The production rate of 230 independent coking enterprises decreased to 73.26% (-0.16) [2] Inventory - Upstream mines and coal washing plants reduced inventory, while downstream steel mills and coking enterprises increased inventory. The port inventory decreased [2] Spot Price and Spread - The spot price of Mongolian 5 coking coal was 868 yuan/ton (unchanged), and the active contract was 825 yuan/ton (-22.5). The basis was 63 yuan/ton (+22.5), and the 9 - 1 month spread was -36 yuan/ton (+6.5) [2] Coke Supply and Demand - The production rate of 230 independent coking enterprises decreased to 73.26% (-0.16). The capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills increased to 90.83% (+0.04), and the daily average molten iron output was 242.29 million tons (+0.11) [3] Inventory - The inventory of the entire industrial chain decreased, with the inventory of 230 coking enterprises, 247 steel mills, and ports all decreasing [3] Spot Price, Spread and Profit - The price of quasi - first - grade coke at Tianjin Port was 1220 yuan/ton (unchanged), and the active contract was 1404 yuan/ton (-17.5). The basis was -92 yuan/ton (+17.5), and the 9 - 1 month spread was -38.5 yuan/ton (+1.5) [3]
宏观缓和，矿山复产，等待逢低多机会
Xin Da Qi Huo·2025-07-01 02:12