五矿期货早报有色金属-20250701

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Copper prices may still rise due to tight raw material supply and low inventory, but the upward momentum is expected to weaken, with short - term shock - rising trends [1]. - Aluminum prices are supported by low inventory but constrained by consumption feedback, and are expected to be volatile in the short term [3]. - Lead prices are generally strong, but the increase of Shanghai lead is expected to be limited under weak domestic consumption [4]. - Zinc prices are boosted by the strike at a Peruvian smelter and the change in the LME market structure, but the large - scale release of zinc ingots is expected [5]. - Tin prices are expected to fluctuate in a narrow range due to short - term supply shortages and weak terminal demand [6]. - Nickel prices may decline due to the oversupply of refined nickel and the expected loosening of nickel ore supply [7]. - Lithium carbonate prices are expected to be under pressure due to high production and low demand [9]. - Alumina prices are expected to be weakly volatile, and it is recommended to short at high prices [11]. - Stainless steel prices are expected to remain weakly volatile due to high production and weak demand [13]. - Cast aluminum alloy prices are expected to fluctuate in the short term, and attention should be paid to the change in the premium over the spot [16]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Copper - Price: LME copper fell 0.01% to $9,878/ton, and SHFE copper closed at 79,780 yuan/ton [1]. - Inventory: LME inventory decreased by 650 to 90,625 tons, and SHFE copper warehouse receipts increased by 0.05 to 26,000 tons [1]. - Supply and Demand: China's refined copper production in June decreased by 0.3% month - on - month and increased by 12.9% year - on - year, and is expected to increase by 1.4% in July [1]. - Outlook: Copper prices may still rise but the upward momentum will weaken, with short - term shock - rising trends [1]. Aluminum - Price: LME aluminum rose 0.1% to $2,597/ton, and SHFE aluminum closed at 20,590 yuan/ton [3]. - Inventory: Domestic major consumption area aluminum ingot inventory increased by 0.5 to 468,000 tons, and LME aluminum inventory increased by 0.1 to 346,000 tons [3]. - Supply and Demand: Domestic aluminum inventory is at a multi - year low, but consumption feedback increases as prices rise [3]. - Outlook: Aluminum prices are expected to be volatile in the short term [3]. Lead - Price: SHFE lead index rose 0.46% to 17,204 yuan/ton, and LME lead 3S rose 16.5 to $2,048/ton [4]. - Inventory: Domestic social inventory slightly increased to 52,300 tons, and LME lead inventory was 273,400 tons [4]. - Supply and Demand: Primary supply remains high, secondary supply is tight, and downstream procurement improves [4]. - Outlook: Lead prices are generally strong, but the increase of Shanghai lead is limited [4]. Zinc - Price: SHFE zinc index rose 0.39% to 22,464 yuan/ton, and LME zinc 3S rose 10 to $2,780/ton [5]. - Inventory: Domestic social inventory slightly increased to 80,600 tons, and LME zinc inventory was 119,200 tons [5]. - Supply and Demand: Zinc ore supply is high, but some smelters convert production, and a Peruvian smelter has a strike [5]. - Outlook: Zinc prices are boosted by the strike and market structure change [5]. Tin - Price: Tin prices are expected to fluctuate between 250,000 - 280,000 yuan/ton in China and 31,000 - 34,000 dollars/ton in LME [6]. - Inventory: National major market tin ingot social inventory increased by 361 to 9,266 tons [6]. - Supply and Demand: Tin ore supply is short - term tight, but terminal demand is weak [6]. - Outlook: Tin prices are expected to be range - bound in the short term [6]. Nickel - Price: Nickel prices are expected to be in the range of 115,000 - 128,000 yuan/ton for SHFE nickel and 14,500 - 16,500 dollars/ton for LME nickel [7]. - Inventory: Not emphasized in significant changes. - Supply and Demand: Refined nickel is in oversupply, and nickel ore supply is expected to loosen [7]. - Outlook: Nickel prices may decline [7]. Lithium Carbonate - Price: MMLC late - market reported 61,177 yuan, and LC2509 closed at 62,260 yuan, down 1.64% [9]. - Inventory: Domestic lithium carbonate inventory continues to increase at a high level [9]. - Supply and Demand: Production hits a record high, and demand is in the off - season [9]. - Outlook: Lithium carbonate prices are under pressure [9]. Alumina - Price: Alumina index rose 0.25% to 2,975 yuan/ton [11]. - Inventory: Not emphasized in significant changes. - Supply and Demand: Capacity is in excess, and ore price is the core contradiction [11]. - Outlook: Alumina prices are expected to be weakly volatile, and short at high prices [11]. Stainless Steel - Price: Stainless steel main contract closed at 12,610 yuan/ton, down 0.08% [13]. - Inventory: Social inventory decreased to 1.1544 million tons, and 300 - series inventory decreased by 1.03% [13]. - Supply and Demand: July production is still high, and terminal demand has not improved [13]. - Outlook: Stainless steel prices are expected to be weakly volatile [13]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - Price: AD2511 contract closed at 19,780 yuan/ton, up 0.08% [16]. - Inventory: Three - place regenerated aluminum alloy ingot social inventory increased by 0.02 to 20,000 tons [16]. - Supply and Demand: Supply and demand are both weak in the off - season, and prices follow aluminum prices [16]. - Outlook: Cast aluminum alloy prices are expected to fluctuate in the short term [16].