国信证券晨会纪要-20250701

Macro and Strategy - The report discusses the trend of central banks increasing gold purchases as part of a de-dollarization strategy, with average annual gold demand from central banks rising from 509.1 tons (2011-2021) to 1072.3 tons (2022-2024) [8][9] - It highlights the significant deviation between GDP share and foreign exchange reserve share for China and the US, indicating a potential investment opportunity in gold as a reserve asset [8] Energy and Electronics - The report notes that the penetration of silicon carbide (SiC) in new energy vehicles has increased, with SiC MOSFETs accounting for 18.6% of the main drive modules in new energy passenger cars from January to May 2025 [10] - It mentions that the sales of new energy vehicles in China reached 1.31 million units in May 2025, a year-on-year increase of 36.9% [10] - The report indicates a stable growth in the number of charging stations, with an increase of 158.3 thousand units from January to May 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 19.2% [11] Semiconductor Industry - The semiconductor industry is experiencing a surge in demand driven by AI applications, with a projected CAGR of 7% for 300mm wafer capacity from 2024 to 2028 [14] - The report emphasizes the strong performance of Micron, which reported a revenue of $9.3 billion for FY25Q3, a year-on-year increase of 37% [15] - It recommends focusing on semiconductor manufacturing companies such as SMIC and Huahong Semiconductor due to the expected growth in AI-related demand [14] Real Estate - The real estate sector is facing a continued downturn, with a significant drop in sales and investment, as indicated by a year-on-year decrease in new housing transactions in 30 cities [19][20] - The report suggests that the current low market sentiment may open up opportunities for investment in real estate stocks, particularly in companies like China Resources Land and Beike [19] Food and Beverage - The report indicates that the price of Moutai has stabilized, and the overall performance of the liquor industry is expected to improve as companies focus on inventory reduction and market health [23] - It highlights the positive outlook for the beer and snack sectors due to seasonal demand increases, recommending companies like Yanjing Beer and Ajinomoto [24] Media and Internet - The media sector has seen a rise in the number of game approvals, with 147 domestic and 11 imported titles approved in June, marking a year-to-date high [26] - The report notes the strong performance of AI applications in various sectors, including gaming and advertising, suggesting investment in companies like Tencent and ByteDance [28]