宝城期货资讯早班车-20250701

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - In June, the manufacturing, non - manufacturing, and composite PMIs in China all rebounded, indicating that the overall economic prosperity level remained in the expansion zone [2][17]. - The central bank has been precisely regulating the mid - year capital market, injecting sufficient liquidity. However, the capital market in July may be affected by fiscal factors [16]. - The bond market in China is experiencing a complex situation. The current bond market has high congestion, but the fundamentals and capital still support it, though the room for growth is limited [31]. - The A - share market rose on Monday, while the Hong Kong stock market declined, and the Taiwan stock market suffered a "stock - exchange double - kill" [33][34]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Macro Data Quick View - In Q1 2025, China's GDP grew by 5.4% year - on - year, the same as the previous quarter [1]. - In June 2025, the manufacturing PMI was 49.7%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month; the non - manufacturing business activity index was 50.5%, up 0.2 percentage points [1][2][17]. - In May 2025, the year - on - year growth rates of M0, M1, and M2 were 12.1%, 2.3%, and 7.9% respectively [1]. - In May 2025, the CPI decreased by 0.1% year - on - year, and the PPI decreased by 3.3% year - on - year [1]. 3.2 Commodity Investment Reference 3.2.1 Comprehensive - In June, the three major PMI indexes in China rebounded, and the overall economic prosperity level remained in the expansion zone [2][17]. - From January 1, 2025, to December 31, 2028, eligible overseas investors can get a 10% tax credit for direct investment in China [2][18]. - Trump criticized the Fed for not cutting interest rates and said the US should pay an interest rate of 1% [3][21]. - On June 30, the Baltic Dry Index fell 2.10% to 1489 points, falling for four consecutive days [4]. 3.2.2 Metals - The central bank issued regulations on anti - money laundering and anti - terrorist financing for precious metals and gemstone institutions [5]. - On June 27, zinc, copper, lead, nickel, and tin inventories decreased, while aluminum inventory increased [6]. - Citi expects the gold price to fall to $2500 - 2700 per ounce by the second half of 2026 [7]. - As of June 30, the SPDR Gold Trust's holdings decreased by 0.24% [7]. - Japan's aluminum price premium for July - September is set at $108 per ton, down 41% from the current quarter [8]. 3.2.3 Coal, Coke, Steel, and Minerals - In June 2025, the steel industry PMI was 45.9%, down 0.5 percentage points month - on - month, indicating continued pressure [9]. - Starting from July 1, 2025, anti - dumping duties will continue to be imposed on imported stainless steel billets and hot - rolled stainless steel sheets/coils from the EU, UK, South Korea, and Indonesia for 5 years [9]. - As the July 9 tariff negotiation deadline approaches, Indonesia will relax or cancel import restrictions on ten categories of goods and raw materials [9]. - Japan plans to extract rare earth minerals from seabed deposits starting from January next year [10]. 3.2.4 Energy and Chemicals - On July 1, domestic refined oil prices are expected to increase by about 230 yuan per ton [11]. - OPEC+ plans to increase production by 411,000 barrels per day in August [11]. - The number of active oil drilling platforms in the US decreased by 6 to 432 last week [11]. - In May, Japan's crude oil imports increased by 13.9% year - on - year, while refined oil sales decreased [11]. - Morgan Stanley expects non - OPEC oil supply to grow strongly from 2025 to 2026, and the Brent crude oil price to fall to about $60 per barrel early next year [12]. 3.2.5 Agricultural Products - Datagro estimates Brazil's 2024/25 soybean production at 1.691 billion tons and corn production at 1.269 billion tons [13]. - Malaysia's palm oil exports in June were 1.382 million tons, up 4.7% year - on - year [14]. - US exporters sold 204,000 tons of bean cake and soybean meal [15]. - In 2025, the number of food products with price increases or planned price increases in Japan may exceed 20,000 [15]. 3.3 Financial News Compilation 3.3.1 Open Market - On June 30, the central bank conducted 3315 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net investment of 1110 billion yuan [16]. - The central bank's precise regulation has ensured sufficient liquidity, but the capital market in July may be affected by fiscal factors [16]. 3.3.2 Key News - In June, China's manufacturing, non - manufacturing, and composite PMIs all rebounded [17]. - The Politburo emphasized the role of decision - making and coordinating institutions [18]. - Overseas investors can get a 10% tax credit for eligible direct investment in China from 2025 to 2028 [18]. - The State Administration of Foreign Exchange issued $3.08 billion in QDII investment quotas [18]. - In the third quarter, 11 issues of ultra - long - term special treasury bonds will be issued [18]. - As of May, overseas institutions' bond holdings in China were 4.4 trillion yuan [19]. - On June 30, the "North - bound Swap Connect" product contract term was extended to 30 years [19]. - In the first half of 2025, the total bond market stock in China reached 188.11 trillion yuan [19]. - The issuance scale of green financial bonds in the inter - bank market has increased significantly this year [19]. - As of June 30, 387 science and technology innovation bonds were issued, with a scale exceeding 580 billion yuan [20][21]. - Trump criticized the Fed for not cutting interest rates [21]. - The US Treasury Secretary said there is no reason to increase the issuance of long - term treasury bonds [21]. - Some bond - related events such as rating changes, redemption, and litigation occurred [22]. - Some overseas credit ratings were confirmed or maintained [22]. 3.3.3 Bond Market Summary - China's bond market declined, with bond yields rising and futures prices falling [24]. - Some bonds in the exchange bond market rose or fell slightly [24]. - The CSI Convertible Bond Index rose 0.35% [25]. - Most money market interest rates rose [26]. - US bond yields fell, and European bond yields mostly rose [27][28]. 3.3.4 Foreign Exchange Market Express - The on - shore RMB against the US dollar rose 34 points, and the central parity rate rose 41 points [29]. - The US dollar index fell 0.50%, and non - US currencies mostly rose [29]. 3.3.5 Research Report Highlights - CITIC Construction Investment believes that the bond market may have short - term profit - taking pressure but may rise in the medium - term [30]. - Huatai Fixed Income turns neutral and cautious on convertible bonds and suggests choosing relatively cheap varieties [31]. - Huatai Fixed Income believes the bond market is highly congested and has weak odds [31]. - CITIC Securities believes that new policy - based financial tools will support key areas [31]. 3.3.6 Today's Reminders - On July 1, 136 bonds will be listed, 86 bonds will be issued, 38 bonds will be paid, and 135 bonds will have principal and interest repaid [32]. 3.4 Stock Market Key News - The A - share market rose on Monday, with over 4000 stocks rising [33]. - The Hong Kong stock market declined, with the Hang Seng Index down 0.87% [34]. - The Taiwan stock market suffered a "stock - exchange double - kill" [34]. - The IPO applications of 5 companies on the Science and Technology Innovation Board were accepted [34]. - The IPO of Kaiyuan Securities was terminated [35]. - In the first half of 2025, 43 new stocks were listed in Hong Kong, and the funds raised exceeded that of 2024 [35]. - In the first half of 2025, 163 public funds conducted 40,093 research visits to 1943 A - share listed companies [35]. - In the first half of 2025, 1493 A - share companies planned 1984 merger and acquisition plans, with 102 being major reorganizations [36]. - The Zheng Yutong family in Hong Kong received HK$88.2 billion in refinancing [36].