Report Industry Investment Rating - Investment rating: ★★ [6] Core Viewpoints of the Report - In June 2025, the 2510 contract of rebar rose by 1.15%. The manufacturing, non-manufacturing, and composite PMIs in June all increased compared to the previous month. The central bank aims to consolidate the stability of the real estate market, and anti-dumping duties will be imposed on imported stainless steel products. From May to June, the molten iron output reached its peak and then declined. Although there was a rebound at the end of June, the overall supply contraction trend remained unchanged. In the second half of the year, production cuts will be the main variable in supply. Currently, due to high temperatures and heavy rainfall across the country, it has entered the traditional off - season for demand, and demand has weakened. With no prominent fundamental contradictions at present, steel prices in July are expected to fluctuate mainly. The recommended trading strategy is to wait and see [5][31][32] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price Analysis - This section includes analyses of futures prices, spot prices, and basis spreads, but specific data and conclusions are not elaborated in the text [7][9][12] Important Market Information - In June, the manufacturing, non-manufacturing, and composite PMIs were 49.7%, 50.5%, and 50.7% respectively, up 0.2, 0.2, and 0.3 percentage points from the previous month. The central bank's second - quarter meeting in 2025 focused on revitalizing existing commercial housing and land to stabilize the real estate market. On June 25, the central bank conducted 300 billion yuan of Medium - term Lending Facility (MLF) operations. From January to May, transportation fixed - asset investment was 1.2 trillion yuan. Since July 1, 2025, anti - dumping duties of 20.2% - 103.1% will be imposed on imported stainless steel billets and hot - rolled stainless steel sheets/coils from the EU, UK, South Korea, and Indonesia for 5 years [14] Supply - side Situation - This section mentions the blast furnace operating rate in Tangshan, but specific data and conclusions are not elaborated in the text [15] Demand - side Situation - As of May 2025, the current value of the non - manufacturing PMI in the construction industry was 51, a month - on - month decrease of 0.9%; the current value of the Steel Distribution Industry Purchasing Managers' Index was 47.5, a month - on - month decrease of 1.3% [21] Fundamental Analysis - In Linfen, Shanxi, a coal mine with a production capacity of 900,000 tons was shut down for 10 - 15 days due to safety hazards. Last week, the weekly output of rebar was 2.1784 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 56,600 tons; the steel mill inventory was 1.856 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 32,800 tons; the social inventory was 3.634 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 53,500 tons. The weekly output of the five major steel products was 8.8099 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 124,800 tons; the total inventory was 13.4003 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 11,400 tons; the apparent demand was 8.7985 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 43,300 tons. The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 83.82%, unchanged from the previous week and up 0.71% year - on - year; the blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate was 90.83%, up 0.04% from the previous week and up 1.70% year - on - year; the steel mill profitability rate was 59.31%, unchanged from the previous week and up 16.45% year - on - year; the daily average molten iron output was 2.4229 million tons, up 110,000 tons from the previous week and up 2.85 million tons year - on - year. Jiangsu Yonggang plans to overhaul a 1080³ blast furnace for about 2 months starting in early July, which is expected to affect about 200,000 tons of molten iron [30] 后市展望 - From May to June, the molten iron output reached its peak and then declined. Although there was a rebound at the end of June, the overall supply contraction trend remained unchanged. In the second half of the year, production cuts will be the main variable in supply. Currently, due to high temperatures and heavy rainfall across the country, it has entered the traditional off - season for demand, and demand has weakened. With no prominent fundamental contradictions at present, steel prices in July are expected to fluctuate mainly [31] Operation Strategy - The recommended operation strategy is to wait and see [32]
螺纹月报:7月钢价预计仍是上下两难,震荡为主-20250701
Hua Long Qi Huo·2025-07-01 02:17