2025年油脂半年报：供应偏紧，重心上移

Report Summary - Report Title: Supply Tight, Center of Gravity Moving Up - Report Date: July 1, 2025 - Researcher: Yao Zhanqi - Investment Advisory Business Qualification: CSRC License [2012] No. 1087 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - In the context of the Fed's entry into the interest - rate cut cycle and increased uncertainties from Trump's trade policies and international situations, the influence of international and domestic macro - policies on the oil and fat market is significantly enhanced. With the overall tightening supply - demand situation, the center of gravity of oil and fat prices is expected to remain high [4][52]. - For palm oil, the global supply pattern in the second half of 2025 remains tight, with strong price support due to long - term supply growth bottlenecks from aging trees and short - term low inventory. However, there are uncertainties in demand due to Indonesia's biodiesel plan. As long as the accumulation of inventory in producing areas is not obvious, palm oil prices are expected to stay high [4][52]. - Regarding soybean oil, the global soybean supply pattern remains loose. A decrease in the 2025/26 US soybean planting area or adverse weather may bring new upward momentum to the soybean complex. Although the overall supply of soybean oil is relatively abundant, demand may increase significantly under the favorable US biodiesel policy, but the increase amount is uncertain [4][52]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 2025 First - Half Year Trend Review - In the first half of 2025, the oil and fat market showed a differentiated trend under the influence of a weaker US dollar index and large fluctuations in crude oil prices. BMD palm oil declined continuously due to falling international crude oil prices and its own production and inventory accumulation. CBOT soybean oil fluctuated greatly due to the repeated US biofuel policy. Domestic palm oil weakened overall, while domestic soybean oil and rapeseed oil strengthened [7]. - First Stage (January - Mid - to - Late January 2025): The supply pressure of new Brazilian crops and the depreciation of the real led to a continuous decline in Brazilian soybean premiums. The soybean oil market was affected by pessimistic expectations of biodiesel policies, and palm oil lacked marginal positive factors, causing the entire oil - seed sector to decline [8]. - Second Stage (Early February - End of March 2025): The unexpected positive USDA report at the beginning of the year, along with the relatively full - scale trading of the pessimistic expectations of the US soybean oil biodiesel policy, and the temporary strength of US soybean oil due to the cold wave in the US fuel market, laid the foundation for the rise in February. After the Spring Festival, soybean oil was strong due to import cost support, and palm oil was also strong due to low production and inventory in Malaysia and the approaching Ramadan [9]. - Third Stage (April - End of May 2025): Palm oil oscillated between strong current conditions and weak expectations, with intense multi - empty games. During the Tomb - Sweeping Festival, the US reciprocal tariff policy caused a systemic impact on the global financial market, leading to a decline in the three major oils. After sentiment stabilized, palm oil continued to oscillate [9]. - Fourth Stage (June 2025 - Present): Geopolitical risks in the Middle East boosted oil prices, and the positive US RVO policy provided upward impetus to the oil and fat sector. However, the subsequent easing of the international situation led to a rapid decline in international crude oil prices and a corresponding drop in oil and fat prices. The market is waiting for more resonance factors in the third quarter to determine the direction [10]. 3.2 2025/2026 Global Vegetable Oil Supply - Demand Situation - In 2025/2026, both global vegetable oil production and consumption are increasing, but the increase in production is less than that in consumption. Imports and exports are both slightly increasing. The global vegetable oil ending inventory in 2025 may continue to decline, and the inventory - to - consumption ratio will also continue to decrease, indicating a tightening supply - demand structure [20]. - Global oilseed production is expected to increase by 14.98 million tons to 692.25 million tons in 2025/2026. Pressing, imports, and exports will also increase, and the ending inventory will slightly increase by 1.95 million tons to 144.13 million tons, with the inventory - to - consumption ratio dropping to 24.82%. The pattern of global oilseed oversupply will continue [20]. - Global oil production will reach 235 million tons in 2025/2026, an increase of 6.49 million tons compared to the previous year. Consumption will increase by 5.35 million tons to 229.38 million tons. The ending inventory will increase by 0.14 million tons to 29.97 million tons, with an inventory - to - consumption ratio of 13.07%. The pattern of oversupply remains, but the supply is getting tighter [23]. 3.3 Palm Oil Market - Since 2016, the new planting area of oil palm trees in Malaysia and Indonesia has slowed down significantly, and the growth of palm oil production has entered a bottleneck. The global palm oil yield has been decreasing at a rate of 0.4% per year in the past decade, with an average annual decline of 2.07% in Malaysia and 0.35% in Indonesia. The average growth rate of global palm oil production in the past decade was only 2.8% [27]. - In 2025/2026, global palm oil production will reach 80.74 million tons, an increase of 1.79 million tons. Consumption is expected to reach 78.34 million tons, an increase of 0.8 million tons. The ending inventory will slightly increase by 0.05 million tons to 15.05 million tons, with an inventory - to - consumption ratio of 19.21%, indicating a relatively tight supply [27]. - Indonesia and Malaysia are the main palm - oil producing countries, accounting for 83.0% of global production. Indonesia is also the largest consumer of palm oil. Other major consumer countries include India, China, and the EU [31][34]. 3.4 Soybean and Soybean Oil Market - In 2025/2026, global soybean production is expected to increase slightly by 6.04 million tons to 426.82 million tons. Consumption will increase significantly by 14.92 million tons to a record high of 424.15 million tons. The ending inventory will increase by 1.1 million tons to a record high of 125.3 million tons. The global soybean supply - demand situation is relatively loose [36]. - Global soybean oil production will increase by 2.4 million tons to 70.79 million tons in 2025/26. Consumption will increase by 2.26 million tons to 69.26 million tons. Imports and exports will decrease slightly, and the ending inventory will increase by 0.37 million tons to 6.5 million tons, with an inventory - to - consumption ratio of 9.4% [39]. - The main soybean oil - producing countries are China, the United States, Brazil, and Argentina, and their production is all increasing, which may put some pressure on soybean oil prices. On the consumption side, except for a slight decrease in India, the consumption of the top five consuming countries is increasing, which supports international soybean oil prices [40][44]. 3.5 Rapeseed Oil Market - In 2025 - 26, global rapeseed production will increase by 4.51 million tons to 89.77 million tons. Imports and exports will decline, while pressing and consumption will increase. The ending inventory will increase by 0.2 million tons to 9.29 million tons, and the inventory - to - consumption ratio will rise to 10.4%, indicating a relatively loose supply of rapeseed [46]. - Global rapeseed oil production will increase by 0.59 million tons to 34.55 million tons, and consumption will increase by 0.4 million tons to 34.65 million tons. Imports and exports will both increase. The ending inventory will decrease by 0.18 million tons to 2.87 million tons, and the inventory - to - consumption ratio will drop to 8.3%, indicating a tight supply of rapeseed oil [49]. 3.6 Future Market Expectations and Concerns - Due to the large differences in market expectations for the number of Fed interest - rate cuts in 2025 and the uncertainties in Trump's trade policies and international situations, the influence of macro - policies on the oil and fat market is enhanced. With a tightening supply - demand structure, oil and fat prices are expected to remain high [52]. - For palm oil, focus on the inventory rhythm in producing areas. As long as inventory accumulation is not obvious, prices are expected to stay high. For soybean oil, pay attention to the US soybean planting area and weather conditions, as well as the implementation of the US biodiesel policy [52].