宏源期货品种策略日报：油脂油料-20250701

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core Viewpoints - The polyester industry chain currently has an unfavorable demand outlook and generally fluctuates with costs. It is expected that PX, PTA, and PR will operate in a volatile manner [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price Information - Crude Oil: On June 30, 2025, the futures settlement price (continuous) of WTI crude oil was $65.11 per barrel, down 0.63% from the previous value; the futures settlement price (continuous) of Brent crude oil was $67.61 per barrel, down 0.24% [1]. - Upstream: On June 27, 2025, the spot price (mid - price) of naphtha CFR Japan was $569.75 per ton, up 0.18%; the spot price (mid - price) of xylene (isomeric grade) FOB South Korea was $728.50 per ton, up 0.41%. On June 30, the spot price of p - xylene PX CFR China's main port was $874 per ton, up 0.85% [1]. - PTA: On June 30, 2025, the closing price of the CZCE TA main contract was 4,798 yuan per ton, up 0.42%; the settlement price was 4,824 yuan per ton, up 1.17%. The spot price of domestic PTA was 5,047 yuan per ton, up 0.52% [1]. - PX: On June 30, 2025, the closing price of the CZCE PX main contract was 6,796 yuan per ton, up 0.65%; the settlement price was 6,826 yuan per ton, up 1.46%. The spot price of domestic p - xylene was 6,836 yuan per ton, unchanged [1]. - PR: On June 30, 2025, the closing price of the CZCE PR main contract was 5,936 yuan per ton, up 0.03%; the settlement price was 5,956 yuan per ton, up 0.47%. The market price (mainstream price) of polyester bottle chips in the East China market was 6,040 yuan per ton, down 0.17% [1]. - Downstream Products: On June 30, 2025, the CCFEI price index of polyester DTY was 8,950 yuan per ton, down 1.10%; the CCFEI price index of polyester POY was 7,325 yuan per ton, down 0.68%; the CCFEI price index of polyester short - fiber was 6,765 yuan per ton, up 0.30% [2]. Spread Information - On June 30, 2025, the near - far month spread of PTA was 192 yuan per ton, a decrease of 32 yuan; the basis was 252 yuan per ton, an increase of 5 yuan. The PXN spread was $304.25 per ton, up 2.12%; the PX - MX spread was $145.50 per ton, up 3.07% [1]. Production and Sales Information - On June 30, 2025, the production and sales rate of polyester filament was 31%, down 19 percentage points; the production and sales rate of polyester short - fiber was 40%, down 14 percentage points; the production and sales rate of polyester chips was 70%, up 8 percentage points [1]. Device Information - Dongying United's 2.5 million - ton PTA device was under maintenance from June 28 for 40 - 45 days. Yisheng New Materials' 3.3 million - ton PTA device reduced its load by about 50% around June 15 and has now returned to normal. Yisheng Hainan's 2 million - ton PTA device is expected to undergo technological transformation for 3 months starting from August 1 [2]. Important News - International crude oil prices fluctuated significantly recently, affecting the trend of PX. The risk premium has been fully reversed, and the PX price is close to the level before the rally. The fundamentals of PX are better than those of PTA, and the rigid demand provides effective support. PTA will have new device put into operation in the third quarter, which is misaligned with PX in time. Currently, PX inventory is at a historical low, so the bottom support is relatively stable [2]. - The PX market was strong during the session, and the cost supported PTA. However, due to concerns about downstream polyester production cuts, the PTA spot basis weakened. After the conflict ended, the oil price reversed the risk premium, and polyester products will follow the decline. The absolute value of PTA inventory is in a downward channel, but the relative value is at a near - five - year high, and the situation of strong near - term and weak far - term is difficult to change [2].