工业硅、多晶硅日评：供给端扰动，价格低位反弹-20250701

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View - The silicon market is experiencing weak supply and demand, with high inventory pressure. Recently, due to sudden production cuts by Xinjiang silicon enterprises on the supply side, the futures and spot prices have rebounded, providing short - term support for silicon prices. In the medium - to - long term, the oversupply situation persists [1]. - The polysilicon price has rebounded at a low level driven by the rising sentiment of industrial silicon. However, from a fundamental perspective, the adjustment of industrial overcapacity takes time to transmit, and the rebound space may be limited [1]. Summary by Related Content Price Changes - Industrial Silicon: The average price of non - oxygen - blown 553 (East China) increased by 1.23% to 8,200 yuan/ton, and the average price of 421 (East China) increased by 1.15% to 8,800 yuan/ton. The closing price of the futures main contract rose by 0.37% to 8,060 yuan/ton [1]. - Polysilicon: The price of N - type dense material remained flat at 33.5 yuan/kg, the price of polysilicon re - feeding material remained flat at 31.5 yuan/kg, the price of polysilicon dense material remained flat at 30.0 yuan/kg, and the price of polysilicon cauliflower material remained flat at 28.5 yuan/kg. The closing price of the futures main contract rose by 0.66% to 33,535 yuan/ton [1]. - Silicon Wafer: The price of N - type 210mm decreased by 0.81% to 1.22 yuan/piece, and the price of N - type 210R decreased by 0.98% to 1.01 yuan/piece. The price of N - type 183mm remained flat at 0.87 yuan/piece [1]. - Cell: The price of single - crystal PERC cell M10 - 182mm remained flat at 0.27 yuan/watt [1]. - Component: The price of single - crystal PERC component single - sided - 182mm remained flat at 0.70 yuan/watt, and the price of single - crystal PERC component single - sided - 210mm remained flat at 0.72 yuan/watt [1]. - Organic Silicon: The price of DMC remained flat at 10,450 yuan/ton, the price of 107 glue decreased by 0.43% to 11,550 yuan/ton, and the price of silicone oil decreased by 0.37% to 13,300 yuan/ton [1]. Market Information - Silicon Wafer Market: In July, the overall production schedule of the silicon wafer market is expected to decrease by about 4 - 5GW, with significant production cuts by several leading enterprises, especially for N - type 183mm silicon wafers [1]. - Electronic Silane Gas Project: The first - phase 2000 - ton production line of Shaanxi Tianhong Ruike Silicon Materials Co., Ltd.'s annual 5000 - ton electronic silane gas project will be put into production at the end of this month, and the second - phase 3000 - ton project will be launched as planned [1]. - Photovoltaic Glass Market: Domestic leading photovoltaic glass enterprises plan to collectively cut production by 30% starting from July, and it is expected that the domestic glass production in July will drop to about 45GW [1]. Supply and Demand Analysis - Industrial Silicon: On the supply side, the operation of silicon enterprises in the north has changed little, and the operation of enterprises in the southwest is steadily recovering. On the demand side, polysilicon enterprises continue to cut production, and the demand from the organic silicon and silicon - aluminum alloy industries is weak [1]. - Polysilicon: On the supply side, silicon material enterprises continue to cut production, but some may have new production capacity, with a slight increase in expected output. On the demand side, the photovoltaic market is weak, with rising inventory and slow - growing demand [1].