宝城期货贵金属有色早报-20250701

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View - For gold, the short - term view is weak, with short - term decline and mid - term oscillation. The core logic is the easing of geopolitical conflicts and significant technical pressure on gold prices. Also, market pricing of the Iran - Israel cease - fire and changes in interest - rate cut expectations impact the price [1][3]. - For copper, the short - term view is strong, with both short - term and mid - term upward trends. The core logic is the improvement of market risk appetite at the macro level and the strong overseas copper premium and continuous inventory reduction at the industrial level [1][5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Gold - Price Movement: Yesterday, the gold price bottomed out and rebounded. The market has fully priced in the short - term Iran - Israel cease - fire, leading to a market correction [3]. - Market Factors: The recent increase in market interest - rate cut expectations and the continuous weakening of the US dollar index provide strong support for the gold price. The probability of three interest rate cuts within the year exceeds 50% according to FedWatch Tool data [3]. - Technical Analysis: The domestic gold price has fallen below the 60 - day moving average, and the willingness of previous short - sellers to close positions may increase. The overseas gold price is near the 60 - day moving average, with significant differences between bulls and bears. Focus on the 3300 - dollar long - short game of London gold and New York gold [3]. - Ratio Trend: The gold - silver ratio is expected to continue to weaken [3]. Copper - Price Movement: Yesterday, the copper price continued to oscillate below 80,000, with a slight decrease in the position volume and an increase in the willingness of long - sellers to close positions [5]. - Macro Factors: After the Iran - Israel cease - fire last week, market risk appetite improved, causing a general rise in non - ferrous metals. The market cooled down on Monday [5]. - Industrial Factors: The overseas LME copper premium has strengthened significantly recently, indicating a shortage of overseas electrolytic copper spot. The domestic Mysteel electrolytic copper social inventory is 123,500 tons, a reduction of 8,400 tons from last week, and the downstream replenishment willingness is strong [5]. - Technical Analysis: Pay attention to the long - short game at the 80,000 mark [5].