铅锌日评20250701：反弹持续性有限-20250701

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - Lead prices have continued to rise supported by raw materials and reduced production at secondary lead plants, but the lack of peak season demand and inventory accumulation risks limit further upward momentum [1] - Zinc prices have rebounded due to positive macro - sentiment and supply - side disturbances, but the rebound suppresses downstream purchasing, and inventory accumulation suggests limited upside potential, with opportunities to short after positive factors fade [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Lead Market Price and Spread - The average price of SMM1 lead ingots decreased by 0.29% to 16,950 yuan/ton, and the closing price of the main futures contract rose by 0.44% to 17,200 yuan/ton. The basis of Shanghai lead decreased by 125 yuan/ton to - 250 yuan/ton [1] - The LME 0 - 3 spread decreased by 5.43 dollars/ton to - 27.57 dollars/ton, and the LME 3 - 15 spread increased by 3.40 dollars/ton to - 54.60 dollars/ton [1] Trading Volume and Open Interest - The trading volume of the active futures contract decreased by 20.49% to 32,321 lots, and the open interest decreased by 0.76% to 51,408 lots. The trading volume to open interest ratio decreased by 19.88% to 0.63 [1] Inventory - LME lead inventory remained unchanged at 271,925 tons, and Shanghai lead warehouse receipts increased by 0.88% to 46,288 tons. As of June 30, SMM lead ingot five - location inventory was 5.63 tons, up from previous weeks [1] Fundamental Information - A large secondary lead smelter in East China had poor production in June and may cut production in July. Lead concentrate imports are not expected to increase, and processing fees are likely to rise [1] - Secondary lead smelters face raw material shortages and cost inversion, leading to reduced production. Demand is expected to improve as it transitions from the off - season to the peak season [1] Zinc Market Price and Spread - The average price of SMM1 zinc ingots decreased by 0.36% to 22,420 yuan/ton, and the closing price of the main futures contract rose by 0.38% to 22,495 yuan/ton. The basis of Shanghai zinc decreased by 165 yuan/ton to - 75 yuan/ton [1] - The LME 0 - 3 spread decreased by 9.99 dollars/ton to - 10.23 dollars/ton, and the LME 3 - 15 spread decreased by 6.11 dollars/ton to - 44.83 dollars/ton [1] Trading Volume and Open Interest - The trading volume of the active futures contract decreased by 28.74% to 160,924 lots, and the open interest decreased by 1.57% to 140,186 lots. The trading volume to open interest ratio decreased by 27.60% to 1.15 [1] Inventory - LME zinc inventory remained unchanged at 117,475 tons, and Shanghai zinc warehouse receipts increased by 11.06% to 7,077 tons. As of June 30, SMM zinc ingot seven - location inventory was 8.06 tons, up from previous weeks [1] Fundamental Information - Zinc smelters have sufficient raw material inventory, and zinc concentrate processing fees are rising. The production of zinc smelters is expected to increase [1] - Zinc price rebounds suppress downstream purchasing, and demand is mainly for replenishing inventory as needed [1] Industry News - Sulliden Mining Capital Inc. acquired a 48% stake in a nickel, zinc, and lead exploration project in Poland, which includes two concessions [1]