海通证券晨报-20250701

Core Insights - The report emphasizes the potential of the construction sector, particularly state-owned enterprises, which are seen as undervalued with strong growth prospects and policy support [4][5][24] - The packaging water business is expected to show a robust recovery in revenue and profitability in the first half of 2025, driven by low base effects and market share recovery [8][9] - The report highlights the positive performance of the banking and telecommunications sectors, while the food and beverage industry is experiencing weaker profit margins [3][4] Industry Analysis - The construction industry is characterized by a focus on dividend-paying state-owned enterprises, with recommendations for companies like China State Construction (dividend yield 4.70%, PB 0.51) and China Railway Construction (dividend yield 3.75%, PB 0.40) [4][5][24] - The report notes that the "Belt and Road" initiative is driving significant growth in overseas contracting, with a 22.1% increase in new contracts signed in 2025 [6][26] - New productivity sectors, such as low-altitude economy and AI, are being explored by design firms, with recommendations for companies like Design Institute (dividend yield 3.25%) and Matrix Co. (dividend yield 3.07%) [7][27] Company-Specific Insights - The report forecasts that Nongfu Spring will achieve EPS of 1.32, 1.57, and 1.86 CNY per share for 2025-2027, with a target price of 50.77 HKD per share based on a 35x PE ratio [8][9] - The company is expected to benefit from a recovery in its packaging water segment, which saw a 19% revenue increase in early 2024, followed by a decline due to negative publicity, but is now on a recovery path [8][9] - The report also highlights the strong performance of Nongfu Spring's sugar-free tea segment, which has seen market share growth from 2% to 4% [8][9]