Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Viewpoints The report provides a comprehensive analysis of various commodity futures, including base metals, black industries, agricultural products, and energy chemicals. It offers market performance, fundamental analysis, and trading strategies for each commodity, suggesting different approaches such as buying, selling, or holding based on market conditions and trends. Summary by Commodity Category Base Metals - Copper: Market showed a slightly stronger oscillation yesterday. With a focus on US interest - rate cut expectations and a weakening US dollar, the tight supply of copper ore continued. London inventory decreased by 650 tons, and the spot was in short supply. The trading strategy is to maintain a buy - on - dips approach [1]. - Aluminum: The 2508 contract of electrolytic aluminum closed up 0.73% yesterday. The supply side saw a slight increase in operating capacity, while the demand side had a slight decline in the aluminum product开工 rate. Given the positive macro - environment but potential downward risks in fundamentals, a cautious bullish view is recommended [1]. - Alumina: The 2509 contract of alumina closed up 1.26% yesterday. Supply and demand were both stable. With the spot price stabilizing and the futures price converging to the basis, it is expected to oscillate within a range, and a wait - and - see approach is advised [1]. - Industrial Silicon: The 09 contract had a high - opening and oscillating performance on Monday. Affected by factory production cuts and coal price increases, the spot price stopped falling. With supply contraction in the northwest and potential restarts in polysilicon, the futures price may have limited upside. A wait - and - see approach is recommended [1]. - Lithium Carbonate: The LC2509 contract closed down 0.77% yesterday. Supply reached a record high in June, and demand was weak in the near - term. Inventory was at a high level. The near - term may see a slight rebound, but a wait - and - see or sell - on - rallies strategy is recommended [1][2]. - Polysilicon: The 08 contract had a high - level oscillation on Monday. Supply may increase, and demand is expected to decline in the third quarter. After the media's attention on the photovoltaic industry's competition, a wait - and - see approach is recommended [2]. Black Industry - Rebar: The 2510 contract showed a weak oscillation. Inventory increased slightly, and supply - demand was relatively balanced but with a seasonal deterioration trend. The futures premium narrowed, and a short - selling strategy for the 2510 contract is recommended [2]. - Iron Ore: The 2509 contract had a weak oscillation. Supply and demand were neutral, with a marginal strengthening in the short - term but an over - supply situation in the medium - term. The futures was in a contango structure, and a short - selling strategy for the 2509 contract is recommended [2]. - Coking Coal: The 2509 contract had a weak oscillation. Supply was relatively loose but improving. The futures was at a premium, and a short - selling strategy for the 2509 contract is recommended [2]. Agricultural Products - Soybean Meal: CBOT soybeans showed mixed performance overnight. Supply was loose in the near - term and normal in the US in the long - term. Demand was seasonally weak in US exports but supported by bio - diesel policies. It is expected to oscillate in the short - term, and the focus is on US soybean production and tariff policies [3]. - Corn: The 2509 contract had a narrow - range oscillation, and the spot price rose. Supply - demand tightened, and the spot price is expected to be strong. The futures price is expected to oscillate upward [3]. - Sugar: The 09 contract closed down 0.22%. With Brazil's ethanol policy having limited impact on sugar production, the domestic market is expected to follow the weak trend of raw sugar. A short - selling strategy in the futures market and selling call options are recommended [3]. - Cotton: The US cotton price fell overnight, and the domestic Zhengzhou cotton price oscillated weakly. International supply conditions were good, and domestic inventory decreased. A wait - and - see approach with an oscillation - range strategy is recommended [3]. - Palm Oil: The Malaysian palm oil price fell slightly. Supply was marginally weakening but still high year - on - year, and demand increased in exports. It is in a seasonal weak phase, and attention should be paid to production and bio - diesel policies [3]. - Eggs: The 2508 contract rose, and the spot price was stable. Supply was high, and demand was affected by price and weather. The futures and spot prices are expected to oscillate [5]. - Hogs: The 2509 contract was strong, and the spot price rose. In the short - term, the price is expected to be strong, but in the medium - term, supply will increase, and the price will decline [5]. - Apples: The main contract closed up slightly. The opening price of early - maturing varieties may support the futures price, but market expectations may change with supply increases. A wait - and - see approach is recommended [5]. Energy Chemicals - LLDPE: The main contract had a slight oscillation yesterday. Supply increased domestically while imports may decline. Demand improved marginally. In the short - term, it will oscillate weakly, and a short - selling strategy for far - month contracts on rallies is recommended [6]. - PVC: The v09 contract closed down 1.3%. Supply is expected to increase, and inventory decreased. A strategy of closing short positions and selling call options above 4950 is recommended [6][7]. - PTA: PX supply is at a medium - low level, and PTA supply decreased. Polyester load decreased slightly. PX long - positions can be held, and PTA positive spreads can be considered in the short - term, while short - selling processing margins on rallies is recommended in the long - term [7]. - Rubber: The RU2509 contract closed down 0.43%. Inventory in Qingdao increased unexpectedly. It is expected to oscillate weakly in the short - term, with short - positions held above 14000 and positive spreads of RU - NR held [7]. - Glass: The fg09 contract closed down 2.2%. Supply is expected to increase, and inventory accumulated unexpectedly. Selling call options above 1250 is recommended [7]. - PP: The main contract had a slight oscillation. Supply increased, and demand was differentiated. In the short - term, it will oscillate weakly, and a short - selling strategy for far - month contracts on rallies is recommended [7][8]. - MEG: Supply is at a high level and may increase, and inventory is at a low level. With a balanced supply - demand situation, short - selling on rallies is recommended [8]. - Crude Oil: After the geopolitical premium subsided, the oil price entered an oscillation mode. In the short - term, the price has limited downside, but in the long - term, it is expected to be bearish due to over - supply. A short - selling strategy on rallies is recommended [8]. - Benzene Ethylene: The main contract had a slight oscillation. Supply may increase in the future, and demand is under pressure. It is expected to oscillate in the short - term, and a short - selling strategy for far - month contracts on rallies is recommended [8][9]. - Soda Ash: The sa09 contract closed down 2.4%. Supply increased, and inventory accumulated at a high level. The market is in a weak supply - demand situation, and selling out - of - the - money call options above 1400 is recommended [9].
商品期货早班车-20250701
Zhao Shang Qi Huo·2025-07-01 02:46