Nvidia(US:NVDA)2025-07-01 02:24Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage of K&S (KLIC US) with a Buy rating, and BE Semiconductor (BESI NA) with a Neutral rating, while maintaining a Buy rating on ASMPT (522 HK) [3][6][11]. Core Insights - Advanced packaging (AP) is expected to evolve significantly from 2025 onwards, with a shift from CoWoS-S to CoWoS-L/R, increased adoption of SoIC driven by HBM5, and potential upgrades in InFO technology led by Apple [3][6]. - The semiconductor cycle's recovery is a key catalyst for K&S and ASMPT, given their substantial sales exposure to conventional packaging [3][6]. CoWoS Technology - CoWoS technology is transitioning from CoWoS-S to CoWoS-L, with TSMC expected to increase its CoWoS-L capacity from approximately 20% in 2024 to nearly 60% in 2025 [7][21]. - CoWoS-S is anticipated to face oversupply due to non-TSMC supply chain expansions, while CoWoS-L is expected to be in demand for high-end GPUs [7][28]. SoIC Technology - SoIC is projected to gain importance with the adoption of high-NA EUV technology, although headwinds are expected in 2025 due to limited new adopters and potential capex constraints from Intel [8][14]. - AMD is currently the major adopter of SoIC, with potential future demand driven by Apple and HBM technologies [8][14]. InFO Technology - Apple is likely to adopt upgraded InFO technology from 2026 onwards, necessitating capacity upgrades to accommodate new application processor designs [9][20]. - The transition from InFO-PoP to InFO-M is expected as the I/O count between DRAM and application processors becomes insufficient [9][20]. Company-Specific Insights - K&S is positioned to be the primary TCB supplier for TSMC's on-wafer process starting in 2025, benefiting from the shift towards CoWoS-L technology [3][6]. - ASMPT is expected to gain market share in the HBM market from a low base, with its TCB potentially adopted by TSMC and Apple in the future [3][6]. - BE Semiconductor faces challenges due to rich valuations and potentially disappointing hybrid bonding orders in 2025 [3][6].