高盛：全球市场_若美联储更快放宽政策对跨资产的影响

Investment Rating - The market is currently pricing a full rate cut by September and more than two cuts by the end of the year [4][15]. Core Insights - Since late April, the market has upgraded its growth views while easing its view of the Fed's reaction function, reversing less of the tighter policy shock than the negative growth shock [2][3]. - Strong labor market data and higher inflation prints could challenge the easing priced in by the market, but favorable inflation news could create more room for earlier and deeper easing [2][16]. - The best expression of the market moving towards pricing more rate cuts depends on the accompanying growth backdrop [15]. Summary by Sections Market Dynamics - The market has begun to push towards pricing more Fed easing, with potential scenarios illustrating how this could affect various assets [5][15]. - A dovish policy shock could lower 2-year yields by 25 basis points, leading to rising equities and a weaker dollar [8]. Scenarios Analysis - Scenario 1: Dovish policy shock with equities rising and yields falling [8]. - Scenario 2: US growth expectations fall by 50 basis points, leading to mixed currency performance and falling equities [9]. - Scenario 3: Dovish Fed shift combined with downgraded growth expectations results in modest equity declines and pronounced yield falls [10]. - Scenario 4: Dovish Fed shift with upgraded growth expectations leads to clear risk asset gains and slight yield decreases [11]. Investment Strategies - Positioning for lower yields and higher equities offers leverage in a dovish shock scenario [15]. - Lower yields but lower equities provide the best leverage in a negative growth shock [15]. - A shift towards pricing more Fed easing could reinforce USD weakness and steeper yield curves [15].