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贵?属延续震荡,关注就业数据及关税进展
Zhong Xin Qi Huo·2025-07-01 03:25

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, focus on labor market data and the progress after the end of the first tariff easing period. If there is marginal deterioration in these two aspects, it will drive up the price of gold in the short - term. If they remain stable, the market risk appetite may not decline significantly, and gold may need time to adjust and accumulate strength [1][3]. - The gold - silver ratio fluctuates around the 90 level. The short - term recovery of market risk appetite supports the silver price, but the decline of the gold price drags down the silver price. Without the resonance of their attributes, silver is difficult to have excess performance and is expected to continue the volatile consolidation trend in the short - term [1][3]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Key Information - Trump is dissatisfied with the US - Japan auto trade deficit and may impose a 25% tariff on Japanese cars. The negotiation deadline is July 9. The Japanese negotiation representative extended the stay in the US, but the US has not unified its stance. Japan's holding of over one trillion US Treasuries may be a bargaining chip. Canada cancelled the digital service tax to promote US - Canada trade negotiations, showing its dependence on the US as US - Canada trade accounts for 20% of Canada's GDP [2]. - US Treasury Secretary Besent said that the tariff issue may return to the level of April 2. A wave of trade agreements is expected to be signed intensively in the last week before July 9. He also pointed out that no inflation pressure caused by tariffs has been observed, but there may be a one - time price adjustment [2]. - Germany's preliminary June CPI increased 2.0% year - on - year (expected 2.2%, May final 2.1%), and was flat month - on - month (expected 0.2%, May final 0.1%). The preliminary harmonized CPI increased 2.0% year - on - year (expected 2.2%, May final 2.1%), and increased 0.1% month - on - month (expected 0.3%, May final 0.2%) [2]. Price Logic - The price of precious metals continued to fluctuate and adjust during the day. The recent rise in risk appetite has put pressure on the gold price. Although the market's expectation of a Fed rate cut has slightly increased, it is difficult to drive the gold price significantly. The weekly COMEX gold price is expected to be in the range of [3200, 3450], and the weekly COMEX silver price is expected to be in the range of [34, 38] [3].