宏源期货品种策略日报-20250701

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The ethylene glycol market is currently in a low-level consolidation phase. The cost support is present, but the demand from the polyester industry continues to be weak, and the production reduction scale is still expanding [2]. - After the geopolitical premium is basically cleared, the ethylene glycol market will return to the fundamental logic, and future trends will depend on changes in supply and demand and industry operating conditions [2]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalog Price Information - Raw Materials: The price of naphtha CFR Japan is $569.75 per ton, with a 0.18% increase; the price of ethylene in Northeast Asia remains unchanged at $851 per ton; the ex-factory price of cycloethane in East China is 6,500 yuan per ton, unchanged; the spot price of methanol MA is 2,810 yuan per ton, unchanged; the tax-included pithead price of lignite in Inner Mongolia is 290 yuan per ton, unchanged [1]. - Ethylene Glycol Futures: The closing price of the DCE EG main contract is 4,267 yuan per ton, a 0.09% decrease; the settlement price is 4,272 yuan per ton, a 0.16% decrease; the closing price of the near-month contract is 4,211 yuan per ton, a 0.14% increase; the settlement price is 4,218 yuan per ton, a 0.35% decrease [1]. - Ethylene Glycol Spot: The market price of ethylene glycol in East China is 4,340 yuan per ton, unchanged; the CCFEI price index of domestic ethylene glycol (MEG) is 4,330 yuan per ton, a 0.23% decrease [1]. - Polyester Products: The CCFEI price index of polyester DTY is 8,950 yuan per ton, a 1.10% decrease; the price index of polyester POY is 7,325 yuan per ton, a 0.68% decrease; the price index of polyester staple fiber is 6,765 yuan per ton, a 0.30% increase; the price index of bottle-grade chips is 6,040 yuan per ton, a 0.17% decrease [1]. Spread Information - The near - far month spread of ethylene glycol is 54 yuan per ton, an increase of 8 yuan; the basis is 63 yuan per ton, a decrease of 6 yuan [1]. Operating Conditions - The overall operating rate of ethylene glycol is 55.85%, with a 0.08% increase; the operating rate of petroleum - based ethylene glycol is 58.32%, a 0.14% increase; the operating rate of coal - based ethylene glycol is 52.28%, unchanged [1]. - The load rate of the PTA industry chain in polyester factories is 89.29%, a 0.06% decrease; the load rate of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms is 64.95%, unchanged [1]. Profit Information - The after - tax gross profit of naphtha - based ethylene glycol is $102.50 per ton, a $0.70 decrease; the after - tax gross profit of ethylene - based ethylene glycol is $144.15 per ton, a $1.00 increase [1]. - The after - tax gross profit of MTO MEG is 2,040.80 yuan per ton, a 45.97 - yuan decrease; the after - tax gross profit of the coal synthesis gas method device is 596.90 yuan per ton, a 2.22 - yuan decrease [1]. Industry News - A 400,000 - ton/year synthetic gas - to - ethylene glycol production line in Shaanxi is scheduled to stop for maintenance for about 20 days at the end of the month [2]. - The spot market of ethylene glycol is in a low - level consolidation, with weak trading. Near - end contracts have a premium, and the external market is also in a low - level state. Some transactions occur at around $510 - $506 per ton [2]. - The trading volume of the DCE EG2509 contract is 1,943,000 lots, with a closing price of 4,267 yuan per ton, a 0.28% decrease [2]. - The production and sales rates of polyester filament, polyester staple fiber, and chips on June 30th are 30.66%, 40.36%, and 70.20% respectively [2].