宏观日报：制造业景气度改善-20250701

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Manufacturing PMI improved in June, with large - scale enterprises above the critical point and medium - scale enterprises showing an upward trend, while small - scale enterprises declined [1]. - The credit spreads of the entire industry have recently declined slightly [3]. - Attention should be paid to the implementation of overseas tax policies, where overseas investors can enjoy tax credits under certain conditions [1]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Production Industry - In June, the manufacturing PMI was 49.7%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month. Large - scale enterprises' PMI was 51.2%, up 0.5 percentage points; medium - scale enterprises' PMI was 48.6%, up 1.1 percentage points; small - scale enterprises' PMI was 47.3%, down 2.0 percentage points [1]. 3.2 Service Industry - Three departments issued a tax credit policy for overseas investors' direct investment with distributed profits from 2025 to 2028 [1]. 3.3 Upstream - Energy: International oil prices dropped significantly year - on - year [2]. - Agriculture: Egg prices have recently rebounded [2]. 3.4 Midstream - Chemical industry: The polyester operating rate has declined [3]. 3.5 Downstream - Real estate: The sales of commercial housing in first - and second - tier cities have seasonally declined and are at a three - year low [3]. - Service: The number of domestic flights has decreased cyclically [3]. 3.6 Industry Credit Spreads - The credit spreads of various industries have shown different trends. For example, the credit spread of the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery industry was 57.07 BP this week, with a certain change compared to the previous period [46]. 3.7 Key Industry Price Indicators - Prices of various industries have different trends. For example, the spot price of WTI crude oil was $65.5 per barrel on June 30, down 11.27% year - on - year; the spot price of eggs was 5.6 yuan per kilogram, down 3.93% year - on - year [47].