供强需弱延续，聚烯烃偏弱运行

Report Industry Investment Rating - The rating for unilateral investment is neutral, and there is no rating for inter - period investment [3] Core View - The international oil price and propane price continue to be weak, so the cost - side support for polyolefins is weak [2] - The supply has slightly increased due to the return of previously shut - down maintenance units and the successful commissioning of Zhenhai Refining & Chemical's 500,000 - ton/year PP unit. However, petrochemical plants are about to enter the traditional maintenance season, and future inventory unit maintenance will be intensive, which will relieve some of the pressure from new supply [2] - The downstream is in a seasonal off - season with limited demand boost. The agricultural film industry is at a low level of operation, and other terminal industries are also operating weakly. Rigid demand for restocking is expected to be weak [2] - The upstream inventory continues to decline, while the inventory of middle - stream traders is declining slowly [2] Summary by Directory 1. Polyolefin Basis Structure - The closing price of the L main contract is 7,261 yuan/ton (- 41), the closing price of the PP main contract is 7,070 yuan/ton (- 33), the LL North China spot price is 7,240 yuan/ton (- 30), the LL East China spot price is 7,350 yuan/ton (+ 0), the PP East China spot price is 7,160 yuan/ton (- 20), the LL North China basis is - 21 yuan/ton (+ 11), the LL East China basis is 89 yuan/ton (+ 41), and the PP East China basis is 90 yuan/ton (+ 13) [1] 2. Production Profit and Operating Rate - The PE operating rate is 76.4% (- 2.3%), and the PP operating rate is 79.3% (- 0.3%) [1] - The PE oil - based production profit is 358.8 yuan/ton (- 7.5), the PP oil - based production profit is - 51.2 yuan/ton (- 7.5), and the PDH - based PP production profit is 268.5 yuan/ton (+ 156.7) [1] 3. Polyolefin Non - Standard Price Difference - No specific price difference data is provided in the given text 4. Polyolefin Import and Export Profit - The LL import profit is - 58.3 yuan/ton (- 5.8), the PP import profit is - 314.6 yuan/ton (- 49.0), and the PP export profit is 22.0 US dollars/ton (+ 0.7) [1] 5. Polyolefin Downstream Operating Rate and Downstream Profit - The PE downstream agricultural film operating rate is 12.4% (+ 0.2%), the PE downstream packaging film operating rate is 48.0% (- 1.2%), the PP downstream plastic weaving operating rate is 43.2% (- 0.4%), and the PP downstream BOPP film operating rate is 60.4% (+ 0.0) [1] 6. Polyolefin Inventory - The upstream inventory continues to decline, while the inventory of middle - stream traders is declining slowly [2]