FICC日报：6月交割结算价格确定，关注马士基7月下半月第一周报价情况-20250701

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The settlement price for the June contract is determined, and attention should be paid to Maersk's first - week quotation in the second half of July. There is a possibility that the freight rate peaked in the first half of July, and the EC2410 contract in the off - season can be sold for hedging when the price is high [1][3][5] - Geopolitically, China will accelerate rare - earth exports to the US, and the US will cancel a series of restrictive measures against China. The freight rates on the US routes are stabilizing after a decline from their high levels [2] - The freight rates on the Shanghai - Europe routes are in a state of correction in the first half of July, and there is a game about when the freight rate will peak in the August contract [4][5] - 2025 is still a big year for container ship deliveries [7] - The trading strategy includes a volatile main contract in the unilateral market and a long - December, short - October strategy in the arbitrage market [7] Summary by Directory 1. Futures Price - As of July 1, 2025, the total open interest of all container shipping index European line futures contracts is 86,515 lots, and the daily trading volume is 46,152 lots. The closing prices of EC2602, EC2604, EC2506, EC2508, EC2510, and EC2512 contracts are 1307.80, 1169.80, 1888.50, 1761.40, 1339.00, and 1500.00 respectively [6] 2. Spot Price - On the online quotation for the Shanghai - Rotterdam route: Maersk's price in the second week of July is 1740/2900 (down $200/FEU from the previous period and now up to 1770/2960); HPL's quotation for the first half of July is 2035/3235, and for the second half is 2435/3835. Other shipping companies also have corresponding quotations [1] - For the Shanghai - US East and West routes, Maersk's Shanghai - Los Angeles price in the second week of the first half of July is 1586/2245 (compared to 4296/5360 in the first half of June), and the Shanghai - New York price is $4120/FEU (compared to $6410/FEU in the first half of June) [2] - The SCFIS on June 16, 23, and 30 are 1697.63, 1937.14, and 2123.24 points respectively, and the June contract settlement price is 1919.34 points [3] 3. Container Ship Capacity Supply - The average weekly capacity on the Shanghai - European base port route in July is 261,900 TEU, and in August is 269,900 TEU. There are 8 blank sailings in July and 2 in August. The decrease in capacity in July is mainly due to the skipping of Shanghai ports by MSC's ALBATROS route [3] - As of June 28, 2025, 135 container ships have been delivered in 2025, with a total capacity of 1.069 million TEU. Among them, 41 ships in the 12,000 - 16,999 TEU range with a total capacity of 615,000 TEU and 6 ships over 17,000 TEU with a total capacity of 142,400 TEU have been delivered [7] 4. Supply Chain No specific content for in - depth summary is provided other than the list of related figures. 5. Demand and European Economy No specific content for in - depth summary is provided other than the list of related figures.