集运指数（欧线）：暂时观望，关注7月下旬挺价成色

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not provide a clear industry investment rating but offers trading strategies and potential price ranges for specific contracts [14] Core Viewpoints - The spot freight rate index SCFIS increased by 9.6% on June 30, exceeding expectations. The current 08 contract is at a discount to the spot freight rate in early July. Ship - owners' pricing strategies vary, with Maersk adopting a low - price strategy, while the OA and PA alliances may raise prices in mid - July. If the spot freight rate rises in late July, the 2508 contract may experience a small subsidy water market; if the price increase fails, the 2508 contract's neutral valuation is around 1750 points. The strategy is to short the 2510 contract at high prices, with the upper pressure level at 1500 points [11][12][14] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Futures Market Data - Yesterday, the container shipping index fluctuated weakly. The main 2508 contract closed at 1761.4 points, down 1.92%; the second - main 2510 contract closed at 1339.0 points, up 0.31%. The EC2506 final delivery settlement price was 1919.3 points [11] 2. Freight Index Data - On June 30, the SCFIS index was reported at 2123.24 points, a 9.6% increase. The index converted to spot freight is about $3050/FEU, corresponding to the average FAK of shipping companies in late June. The FAK of shipping companies in early July is between $2900 - $3640/FEU, with an average of about $3400/FEU, corresponding to an SCFIS index of around 2380 points in early July [11] 3. Spot Freight Data - Maersk lowered its price by $200/FEU in the second week of July, while other shipping companies' list prices did not follow the large - scale price cut. The OA alliance's FAK price is between $3500 - $3560/FEU, the PA alliance's list price is between $3300 - $3400/FEU, and MSC's NAC price in early July is $3640/FEU [12] 4. Fundamental Data - In July, there was 1 additional blank sailing and 1 additional pending voyage compared to last week. In August, the number of blank sailings remains at 4, and the number of pending voyages is revised down from 3 to 1. If pending voyages are not considered, the average weekly capacity in August is 30.6 million TEU/week; if considered, it rises to 31 million TEU/week. It is expected that the space for shipping companies to actively reduce capacity in August is relatively limited [13][14] 5. Market Outlook and Strategy - Due to the incomplete start of Christmas cargo exports and concentrated shipments from long - term contract customers, the cargo volume is expected to have a normal seasonal increase in July, with a possible turning point at the end of July. The increase in capacity in July is roughly equivalent to the historical increase in cargo volume. The strategy is to short the 2510 contract at high prices, with the upper pressure level at 1500 points [14]