中信期货晨报：国内商品期货涨跌互现，集运主力合约承压运行-20250701

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Overseas macro: US consumer sentiment has improved, and the economic fundamentals are showing signs of recovery. However, due to tariff policies, consumers remain cautious about the future, and structural concerns still exist. Inflation expectations are stabilizing, and market expectations for the Fed to cut interest rates have increased this week [8]. - Domestic macro: The domestic economic fundamentals have not changed significantly this week. Both domestic and external demand have some resilience, but the upward drive depends on the acceleration of existing policies and the implementation of incremental policies. The real estate market is in a slow season, and infrastructure construction's physical workload is seasonally decreasing. Local special bond issuance has increased at the end of the month, and the remaining trade - in funds will be allocated in July to support consumption [8]. - Asset views: The domestic economy remains stable, with mainly structural opportunities for domestic assets. Policy - driven logic will be strengthened in the second half of the year. Overseas geopolitical risks may increase short - term market volatility, while the long - term weak - dollar pattern continues. Attention should be paid to non - dollar assets and strategic allocation of resources such as gold [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Financial Market and Commodity Price Movements - Domestic financial markets: The CSI 300 futures rose 0.24% daily, 0.24% weekly, 3.57% monthly, 1.09% quarterly, and - 0.90% year - to - date. Treasury bond futures generally declined, with the 30 - year Treasury bond futures down 0.39% daily. The dollar index was flat, and the dollar - yuan central parity rate decreased by 41 pips daily. Interest rates such as the 7 - day inter - bank pledged repo rate increased [3][5]. - Domestic commodities: The shipping sector's container shipping to Europe route decreased by 2.42% daily. Among non - ferrous metals, copper decreased by 0.06% daily, while zinc increased by 0.38% daily. In the energy and chemical sector, NYMEX WTI crude oil decreased by 0.23% daily, and ICE UK natural gas decreased by 2.90% daily. Agricultural products showed mixed trends, with CBOT soybeans rising 0.89% daily and CBOT corn rising 1.79% daily [3][4][5]. 3.2 Macro Analysis - Overseas macro: The US consumer sentiment is improving, but tariff policies make consumers cautious. The inflation expectation structure is stabilizing, and market expectations for the Fed to cut interest rates have increased [8]. - Domestic macro: The domestic economic fundamentals are stable, but the real estate market is in a slow season, and infrastructure construction's physical workload is decreasing seasonally. Local special bond issuance is increasing, and consumption - supporting funds will be allocated in July [8]. 3.3 Viewpoints on Various Sectors - Macro: Overseas stagflation trading is cooling down, and the long - and short - term allocation strategies are diverging. Domestically, there may be moderate reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts, and the fiscal side will implement established policies in the short term. Overseas, the inflation expectation structure is flattening, and economic growth expectations are improving [10]. - Financial: The bullish sentiment in both the stock and bond markets has declined. Stock index futures are in a state of releasing capital congestion, and stock index options require waiting for a decline in volatility. The bullish sentiment in the bond market has weakened [10]. - Precious metals: Risk appetite has recovered, and precious metals are undergoing short - term adjustments. The short - term trend will continue to adjust due to the progress of Sino - US negotiations [10]. - Shipping: Market sentiment has declined. Attention should be paid to the sustainability of the increase in the loading rate in June, and the game between peak - season expectations and price increases needs to be monitored [10]. - Black building materials: The sector remains in a volatile pattern. Attention should be paid to the recovery of coal supply in July. Coke has completed four rounds of price cuts, and the sentiment of stabilizing prices is increasing. Coking coal supply is continuously disrupted, and the market sentiment is high [10]. - Non - ferrous metals and new materials: The coexistence of low inventory and weak demand expectations leads to continued volatility in non - ferrous metals. Copper prices are high due to a weak dollar index, while zinc is expected to decline due to an oversupply situation [10]. - Energy and chemicals: Crude oil prices are stable, and the positive basis of chemicals provides some support. Most products are in a volatile state, with some expected to decline and a few expected to rise [12]. - Agriculture: Sino - US negotiations have made substantial progress, which is beneficial for the cotton price to rebound. Most agricultural products are in a volatile state, with some expected to decline, such as pulp [12].