光大期货金融期货日报-20250701

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - The report does not provide an investment rating for the industry. Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The A-share market continued to rise, with the Wind All A index up 0.89% and a trading volume of 1.22 trillion yuan. The CSI 1000 index rose 1.26%, the CSI 500 index rose 0.88%, the SSE 50 index rose 0.16%, and the SSE 300 index rose 0.37%. The defense and military industry led the gains, and the TMT sector strengthened. The Fed Chairman's remarks and the dot plot have led the market to price in interest rate cuts in advance, and the Nasdaq is approaching its all-time high. The A-share market has also been boosted and has risen for two consecutive days, but its valuation is above the historical average, making it difficult to continue a sharp upward trend. The stablecoin concept has been popular recently, but it is still a long way from replacing the US dollar as a trading medium. The domestic fundamentals show that the manufacturing PMI in June was 49.7, still in the contraction range; the PPI in May was -3.3% year-on-year, down from April; and the new RMB loans were 620 billion yuan, 330 billion yuan less than the same period last year. Under the background of debt reduction, credit contraction and insufficient demand are still the main contradictions, and the index is difficult to break through the center and rise significantly. On the other hand, the corporate profitability in the first half of 2025 has improved significantly compared with 2024, and with the support of allocation funds, the A-share index will not fall significantly in the short term. It is expected that the index will continue to fluctuate in the future [1][2]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Daily Price Changes - Stock Index Futures: The IH contract rose 9.0 points (0.34%), the IF contract rose 9.2 points (0.24%), the IC contract rose 36.0 points (0.62%), and the IM contract rose 37.8 points (0.62%) [3]. - Stock Indexes: The SSE 50 index rose 4.4 points (0.16%), the SSE 300 index rose 14.3 points (0.37%), the CSI 500 index rose 51.7 points (0.88%), and the CSI 1000 index rose 79.2 points (1.26%) [3]. - Treasury Bond Futures: The TS contract fell 0.044 points (-0.04%), the TF contract fell 0.105 points (-0.10%), the T contract fell 0.15 points (-0.14%), and the TL contract remained unchanged [3]. - Treasury Bond Yields: The yields of 2-year, 5-year, 10-year, and 30-year treasury bonds increased by 1.32, 0.72, 0.81, and 1.5 basis points respectively [3]. 2. Market News - On June 30, the National Bureau of Statistics and the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing released data showing that the manufacturing PMI, non-manufacturing business activity index, and composite PMI output index all rebounded in June, reaching 49.7%, 50.5%, and 50.7% respectively. The manufacturing production and demand indexes were in the expansion range, and the price index rebounded; the construction industry in the non-manufacturing business activity expanded faster [4]. 3. Chart Analysis - Stock Index Futures: The report provides charts of the trends and basis of the IH, IF, IC, and IM contracts [6][7][8][9][10]. - Treasury Bond Futures: The report provides charts of the trends, basis, inter - period spreads, cross - variety spreads, and funding rates of treasury bond futures and the yields of treasury bond cash [13][14][15][16][17]. - Exchange Rates: The report provides charts of the central parity rates of the US dollar, euro against the RMB, forward exchange rates, the US dollar index, and exchange rates between major currencies [20][21][22][24][25].