高硫燃料油市场结构持续转弱

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - High-sulfur fuel oil: Oscillation [3] - Low-sulfur fuel oil: Oscillation [3] 2) Core View of the Report - The market structure of high-sulfur fuel oil has continued to weaken, but it will gain new support after full adjustment. The low-sulfur fuel oil market lacks a continuous upward drive [1][2] 3) Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - High-sulfur fuel oil: The main contract of Shanghai Futures Exchange fuel oil futures closed down 0.5% at 2990 yuan/ton. The spread structure has weakened significantly recently, with spot discounts, monthly spreads, and crack spreads continuously declining. OPEC's production increase will drive up the supply of medium and high-sulfur crude oil and fuel oil, and Iranian exports may rebound. The demand for power generation in summer is strong, shipping consumption is relatively stable, and refinery demand requires further adjustment of crack spreads. The increase in the consumption tax deduction ratio of some domestic refineries is beneficial to the recovery of import demand [1] - Low-sulfur fuel oil: The main contract of INE low-sulfur fuel oil futures closed down 0.61% at 3581 yuan/ton. Short-term supply pressure is limited, and the market structure is stable. European refineries have switched production, and the supply of arbitrage cargoes in the Western region is low. The domestic production of low-sulfur fuel oil is at a low level. Singapore's bunker sales increased significantly in May, and short-term downstream bunker demand is good. In the medium term, the trend of carbon neutrality in the shipping industry will gradually replace the market share of low-sulfur fuel oil, and domestic production is expected to pick up after the refinery maintenance season ends [2] Strategy - High-sulfur: Oscillation [3] - Low-sulfur: Oscillation [3] - Cross-variety: Short the FU crack spread (FU-Brent or FU-SC) on rallies [3] - Cross-period: None [3] - Spot-futures: None [3] - Options: None [3]