债市周观察：谜团仍在持续

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Near the end - of - quarter period, the overall pattern of ample liquidity remained, with minor fluctuations. The stock market reaching a new high this year and the easing of external risks put some pressure on the bond market. However, the weak fundamentals, such as soft inflation and financial data, continued decline in real - estate investment, and PMI still in the contraction range, supported the bond market. The market showed narrow - range fluctuations with a small correction amplitude. The 10 - year Treasury yield rose slightly by 1BP to 1.65%, and the 2 - year Treasury yield dropped by 4BP to 1.36%, making the yield curve steeper [1][19]. - The change in the central bank's monetary policy statement from "choosing the right time to cut the reserve requirement ratio and interest rates" to "flexibly grasping the intensity and rhythm of policies" does not completely rule out the possibility of reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts in the third quarter. Given the current insufficient endogenous economic momentum and unresolved external risks, the policy toolbox may still be opened at any time [2][20]. - The central bank's unexpected non - release of Treasury trading data on June 30 extended the mystery timeline. It may be an attempt to maintain the current bond market level as the market has formed a consensus that the start of Treasury trading is a catalyst for the decline in bond market interest rates [2][20]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Interest - Bearing Bonds: Last Week's Data Review - Short - term Interest Rates: From June 23 to 27, DR001 fluctuated around 1.37%, and R001 fluctuated around 1.44% from June 23 to 26 and rose to 1.46% on June 27. Affected by the end - of - quarter period, the 7 - day interest rates increased significantly. DR007 rose from 1.51% on June 23 to 1.70% on June 27 and further to 1.92% on June 30. FR007 rose from 1.57% on June 23 to 1.85% on June 27 and to 1.95% on June 30 [6]. - Open - Market Operations: In the last week of the quarter, the central bank increased its capital injection. The central bank conducted reverse - repurchase operations worth 202.75 billion yuan, with a total maturity of 96.03 billion yuan, resulting in a net capital injection of 106.72 billion yuan [6]. - Sino - US Interest Rate Comparison: The US 6 - month SOFR rate decreased from 4.23% on June 23 to 4.14% on June 27, while the Chinese 6 - month SHIBOR rate remained stable at 1.64%. As of June 27, the 6 - month Sino - US interest rate spread was - 250BP, and the spread continued to narrow. The 2 - year and 10 - year Sino - US bond spreads were - 237BP and - 264BP respectively, with little change in the short - and long - term spread inversion amplitude during the week [13]. - Term Spread and Yield Curve: The term spreads of both Chinese and US bonds widened. The 10 - 2 - year spread of Chinese bonds widened from 27BP to 29BP, and that of US bonds widened by 6BP to 56BP. The yield curves of both Chinese and US bonds became steeper. The short - end of the Chinese bond yield declined slightly, and the long - end rose slightly. The middle - end of the US bond yield declined significantly [14]. 3.2 Last Week's Key Bond Market Events - 2025 Q2 Monetary Policy Committee Meeting: The meeting proposed to increase the intensity of monetary policy regulation, improve its forward - looking, targeted, and effective nature, and flexibly grasp the intensity and rhythm of policy implementation. It aimed to maintain ample liquidity, guide financial institutions to increase credit supply, and promote a decline in the comprehensive social financing cost. It also emphasized observing and evaluating the bond market from a macro - prudential perspective, paying attention to long - term yield changes, and preventing excessive exchange - rate fluctuations [21]. - US Senate's Procedural Motion: On June 28 (local time), the US Senate passed a procedural motion to advance the so - called "big and beautiful" large - scale tax and spending bill. If passed, the bill is expected to increase the US debt by $3.3 trillion over the next decade [22].