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国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-贵金属及基本金属-20250701
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo·2025-07-01 05:24
  1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - Gold: Geopolitical cease - fire; trend strength is - 1 [2][8] - Silver: Continuing to surge; trend strength is 1 [2][8] - Copper: Favorable sentiment, firm price; trend strength is 0 [2][12] - Tin: Tight current situation but weak expectations; trend strength is 0 [13][15] - Nickel: Support from the ore end is loosening, and the smelting end limits the upward elasticity; trend strength is 0 [17][20] - Stainless steel: Inventory is slightly decreasing marginally, steel price is recovering but with limited elasticity; trend strength is 0 [17][20] 3. Summaries by Commodity Gold - Price data: Yesterday, the closing price of Shanghai Gold 2508 was 765.46 with a daily decline of 0.12%, and the night - session closing price was 768.98 with a night - session increase of 0.54%. The closing price of Comex Gold 2508 was 3315.00 with a daily increase of 0.88% [5] - Trading volume and position: The trading volume of Shanghai Gold 2508 was 147,042, a decrease of 22,175 from the previous day, and the position was 119,087, a decrease of 10,735 [5] - ETF and inventory: The position of SPDR Gold ETF was 952.53, a decrease of 2 from the previous day. The inventory of Shanghai Gold was 18,237 kg, unchanged from the previous day [5] Silver - Price data: Yesterday, the closing price of Shanghai Silver 2508 was 8762 with a daily decline of 0.34%, and the night - session closing price was 8722.00 with a night - session increase of 0.10%. The closing price of Comex Silver 2508 was 36.330 with a daily increase of 0.46% [5] - Trading volume and position: The trading volume of Shanghai Silver 2508 was 504,424, an increase of 34,875 from the previous day, and the position was 277,702, a decrease of 37,746 [5] - ETF and inventory: The position of SLV Silver ETF (the day before yesterday) was 14,826.61, a decrease of 40. The inventory of Shanghai Silver was 1,299,756 kg, an increase of 4093 from the previous day [5] Copper - Price data: Yesterday, the closing price of the Shanghai Copper main contract was 79,870 with a daily decline of 0.06%, and the night - session closing price was 79780 with a night - session decline of 0.11%. The closing price of LME Copper 3M electronic disk was 9,878 with a daily decline of 0.01% [10] - Trading volume and position: The trading volume of the Shanghai Copper main contract was 100,945, a decrease of 30,811 from the previous day, and the position was 212,911, a decrease of 2,794 [10] - Inventory and spread: The inventory of Shanghai Copper was 25,851, an increase of 505 from the previous day. The LME Copper cash premium was 181.69, a decrease of 58.98 from the previous day [10] - Macro and industry news: China's official manufacturing PMI in June rose for two consecutive months to 49.7, and the new order index returned to the expansion range. Chile's Antofagast hopes to extend the mining of Los Pelambres mine through expansion and upgrading [10][12] Tin - Price data: Yesterday, the closing price of the Shanghai Tin main contract was 268,110 with a daily decline of 0.28%, and the night - session closing price was 267,010 with a night - session decline of 0.42%. The closing price of LME Tin 3M electronic disk was 33,750 with a daily increase of 0.55% [14] - Trading volume and position: The trading volume of the Shanghai Tin main contract was 85,038, a decrease of 23,766 from the previous day, and the position was 31,484, a decrease of 1,518 [14] - Inventory and spread: The inventory of Shanghai Tin was 6,750, an increase of 199 from the previous day. The SMM 1 tin ingot price was 263,300, a decrease of 1,100 from the previous day [14] Nickel and Stainless Steel - Price data: The closing price of the Shanghai Nickel main contract was 120,830, and the closing price of the stainless - steel main contract was 12,610 [17] - Trading volume and position: The trading volume of the Shanghai Nickel main contract was 86,158, and the trading volume of the stainless - steel main contract was 146,051 [17] - Industry news: In March, the governor of Ontario, Canada, threatened to stop exporting nickel to the US. The Indonesian CNI nickel - iron RKEF phase - I project entered the trial - production stage [17][18]