Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core Viewpoints - Since 2013, the egg market has gone through three major cycles, and currently, the egg - chicken farming profit has turned negative again. This year, the average monthly egg - chicken farming profit from May to June turned negative, and the loss time is not long enough to drive a large - scale and rapid culling of chickens. Before the farming end completes the substantial capacity reduction, the price is expected to remain at a low level. If the seasonal consumption peak drives the price to rise rapidly, the capacity - reduction process and supply pressure will be postponed [4][5] - In 2020, when the price was below 3 yuan/jin for more than half a year, it was only after the second price low appeared and persisted that the culling age of chickens dropped below 500 days and the capacity was basically cleared. This year, the first price low may appear in early July, and as of June 30, the culling age of chickens was still 508 days. The second price low may be offset by the consumption peak, and the culling age of chickens may remain high. The capacity - reduction process may occur in the fourth quarter of this year or the first quarter of next year [2][7][8] Summary by Directory 1. Analyzing Egg - Chicken Supply from the Farming Profit Cycle - From 2013 to 2017, due to the epidemic, the egg - chicken inventory decreased and the price increased. Then, driven by high profits, the supply increased and the price fell. In 2017, the industry completed capacity reduction due to the epidemic [4] - From 2017 to 2020, after the supply decreased, the egg price recovered. The African swine fever increased the supply of poultry meat and eggs, and the high - prosperity cycle of eggs was extended. In late 2019, the egg supply pressure emerged and the price dropped [4] - From 2020 to the present, after the capacity reduction, the egg price recovered in 2021. In 2022, the egg price remained at an average level. In 2023, the egg price fluctuated widely. In 2024, the egg price first decreased and then increased, and the capacity expanded. Since the fourth quarter of 2024, the egg price has been falling [5] - This year, from May to June, the average monthly egg - chicken farming profit turned negative. The average loss per jin of eggs in the second quarter was 0.13 yuan/jin, and the average farming profit from January to June was +0.17 yuan/jin. The short - term loss is not enough to drive large - scale culling [5] 2. Thoughts on the Current Egg - Chicken Capacity - Reduction Path - In 2020, when the price was below 3 yuan/jin for more than half a year, the first low point appeared in early February with a culling age of over 500 days, and the second low point from mid - May to mid - June led to a culling age dropping to a minimum of 446 days and basic capacity clearance [2][7] - This year, the first price low may be in early July. As of June 30, the Guantao egg price was 2.49 yuan/jin, and the culling age was 508 days. According to historical data, a second low and its persistence are needed to drive large - scale culling. However, the second low may be offset by the consumption peak, and the capacity - reduction may occur in the fourth quarter of this year or the first quarter of next year [2][8] 3. Strategy Recommendations - Focus on the culling rhythm and amplitude of the egg - chicken farming end in the third quarter. If the culling is less than expected, pay attention to the short - selling opportunities of contracts in the fourth quarter of this year and the first quarter of next year [10] - Egg - chicken farming enterprises are advised to consider the selling hedging opportunities of relevant contracts in the fourth quarter and the first quarter of next year [10]
此轮蛋鸡去产能路径的相关思考
Ge Lin Qi Huo·2025-07-01 05:37