贵金属数据日报-20250701

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - On June 30, the main contract of Shanghai gold futures closed down 0.63% to 767.58 yuan/gram, and the main contract of Shanghai silver futures closed down 0.54% to 8,762 yuan/kilogram [4] - Recently, the easing of trade frictions and the significant improvement in market risk appetite have suppressed precious metal prices. However, due to the unexpectedly weak US personal consumption expenditure in June, the US Senate's likely passage of the "big and beautiful" tax and spending bill, and the high uncertainty of tariff policies, the short - term decline space of gold prices is relatively limited, and it is likely to enter a shock phase and gradually accumulate momentum for an upward move. For silver, the improvement of market risk appetite boosts its commodity attributes in the short term, but in the medium term, the physical demand in the second half of the year may be further suppressed, limiting its upside [4] - Against the backdrop of the ongoing trade war, there is still a certain probability of the Fed cutting interest rates this year. With the continuous global geopolitical uncertainty, intensifying great - power competition, and the wave of de - dollarization, central banks' gold purchases continue, and the monetary attribute of gold is constantly strengthening. The medium - to - long - term upward trend of gold has not changed. The strategy is to continue to allocate long positions on dips [4] Summary by Related Catalogs Price Tracking of Internal and External Gold and Silver - As of June 30, 2025, London gold spot was at $3,292.28 per ounce, London silver spot was at $36.21 per ounce, COMEX gold was at $3,303.50 per ounce, and COMEX silver was at $36.44 per ounce. Compared with June 27, the price of gold decreased by 0.1% and silver decreased by 0.7% [3] - The prices of AU2508, AG2508, AU (T + D), and AG (T + D) also showed varying degrees of decline, with silver prices generally falling more than gold prices [3] Spread/Ratio Tracking - As of June 30, 2025, the gold TD - SHFE active price spread was - 2.9 yuan/gram, and the silver TD - SHFE active price spread was - 20 yuan/kilogram. Compared with June 27, the gold spread increased by 11.5% and the silver spread decreased by 9.1% [3] - The gold internal - external spread (TD - London) was 4.83 yuan/gram, and the silver internal - external spread (TD - London) was - 598 yuan/kilogram, showing different degrees of change compared with June 27 [3] Position Data - As of June 27, 2025, the gold ETF - SPDR was 954.82 tons, an increase of 0.15% compared with June 26; the silver ETF - SLV remained unchanged at 14,866.18481 tons [3] - The non - commercial long and short positions of COMEX gold and silver also showed different degrees of change, with the net long positions of COMEX gold and silver decreasing [3] Inventory Data - As of June 30, 2025, the SHFE gold inventory was 18,237 kilograms, unchanged from June 27; the SHFE silver inventory was 1,299,756 kilograms, an increase of 0.32% [3] - The COMEX gold inventory remained unchanged, and the COMEX silver inventory decreased by 0.19% [3] Interest Rate/Exchange Rate/Index Data - As of June 30, 2025, the 2 - year US Treasury yield was 7.16, the US dollar/Chinese yuan central parity rate was 97.26, the US dollar index was 3.73, the 10 - year US Treasury yield was 4.29, the VIX was 16.32, the S&P 500 was 6,173.07, and NYMEX crude oil was $65.07 [4] - Compared with June 27, the 2 - year US Treasury yield decreased by 0.06%, the US dollar/Chinese yuan central parity rate increased by 0.81%, and other indicators also showed different degrees of change [4] Chart Analysis and News Events - The US Senate passed a procedural motion to advance the "big and beautiful" tax and spending bill, which is estimated to increase the US federal government's debt by about $3.8 trillion in the next 10 years [4] - China and the US further confirmed the framework details of the Geneva consensus, and the two sides will take corresponding measures [4] - Canada and the US will resume negotiations to reach a trade agreement by July 21 [4]