聚酯数据日报-20250701

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2) Core Viewpoints - PTA: With the easing of the war between Iran and Israel, the crude oil market dropped significantly, and the chemical industry followed the decline. Despite the expectation of reduced downstream polyester load, the actual polyester output reached a new high. PTA will likely go through inventory reduction in the coming period, and the actions of major factories to increase the basis for sales have a significant impact on the market, making PTA spot supply tight. Polyester has recently achieved rapid inventory reduction [2]. - Ethylene Glycol (MEG): The conflict between Iran and Israel has eased, leading to a sharp decline in crude oil prices, and the chemical industry as a whole will follow suit. The rise in ethylene prices has strengthened the cost side, and the export of Iranian petrochemicals is expected to be affected. However, the overall import volume of MEG from Iran is limited. The profit of coal - based MEG has expanded, and the recent blockage of US ethane imports has affected domestic MEG plants. MEG will continue the inventory reduction trend, and the arrival volume will decrease. Polyester production cuts will have a certain impact on the market, and the inventory at ports has changed little. The recovery of the load of coal - based MEG plants will put pressure on the market, and MEG will enter the inventory reduction stage later [2]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Data - Crude Oil: INE crude oil price dropped from 498.5 yuan/barrel on June 27, 2025, to 496.7 yuan/barrel on June 30, 2025, a decrease of 1.8 yuan/barrel [2]. - PX: CFR China PX price increased from 868 to 874, and the PX - naphtha spread rose from 298 to 304. The PX operating rate decreased from 80.43% to 78.98%, a decline of 1.45 percentage points [2]. - PTA: The PTA主力期价 increased from 4778 yuan/ton to 4798 yuan/ton, and the spot price rose from 5025 to 5030 yuan/ton. The spot processing fee decreased from 341.3 yuan/ton to 316.5 yuan/ton, and the disk processing fee dropped from 84.3 yuan/ton to 74.5 yuan/ton. The PTA operating rate decreased from 78.56% to 77.34%, a decline of 1.22 percentage points. The PTA - SC spread increased from 1155.4 to 1188.4, and the PTA/SC ratio rose from 1.3189 to 1.3292. The PTA warehouse receipt quantity decreased from 35022 to 34434, a reduction of 588 [2]. - MEG: The MEG主力期价 decreased from 4271 yuan/ton to 4267 yuan/ton. The MEG - naphtha spread changed from (102.50) to (101.69). The MEG domestic price decreased from 4346 to 4334 yuan/ton. The MEG operating rate increased slightly from 55.77% to 55.85%, an increase of 0.08 percentage points [2]. - Polyester Products: The polyester load decreased slightly from 89.35% to 89.29%, a decline of 0.06 percentage points. Among polyester filament products, the prices of POY150D/48F, FDY150D/96F, and DTY150D/48F all decreased, and their cash flows also declined. The long - filament sales rate decreased from 49% to 31%, a decline of 18 percentage points. The price of 1.4D direct - spun polyester staple fiber remained unchanged, and its cash flow decreased slightly. The short - fiber sales rate decreased from 53% to 40%, a decline of 13 percentage points. The price of semi - bright chips increased from 5905 to 5915 yuan/ton, and the chip cash flow increased from (197) to (188). The chip sales rate decreased from 70% to 62%, a decline of 8 percentage points [2]. Device Maintenance - A 1.5 - million - ton PTA plant in East China has restarted after being shut down for maintenance around May 6. A 3 - million - ton PTA plant in East China has recently shut down for maintenance, with an expected maintenance period of about 10 days [2].