国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-20250701

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Gold: -1 (Weakly bearish) [9] - Silver: 1 (Weakly bullish) [9] - Copper: 0 (Neutral) [13] - Tin: 0 (Neutral) [16] - Nickel: 0 (Neutral) [21] - Stainless Steel: 0 (Neutral) [21] - Lithium Carbonate: -1 (Weakly bearish) [24] - Industrial Silicon: 0 (Neutral) [27] - Polysilicon: -1 (Weakly bearish) [27] - Iron Ore: -1 (Weakly bearish) [28] - Rebar: 0 (Neutral) [32] - Hot - Rolled Coil: 0 (Neutral) [32] - Ferrosilicon: 0 (Neutral) [37] - Silicomanganese: 0 (Neutral) [37] - Coke: 0 (Neutral) [41] - Coking Coal: 0 (Neutral) [41] - Thermal Coal: 0 (Neutral) [46] - Logs: -1 (Weakly bearish) [49] - Rubber: 0 (Neutral) [51] - Synthetic Rubber: 0 (Neutral) [58] - LLDPE: 0 (Neutral) [61] - PP: -1 (Weakly bearish) [65] - Caustic Soda: -1 (Weakly bearish) [71] - Pulp: 0 (Neutral) [75] - Glass: -1 (Weakly bearish) [81] - Methanol: 0 (Neutral) [86] - Urea: 0 (Neutral) [90] - Styrene: -1 (Weakly bearish) [92] - Soda Ash: -1 (Weakly bearish) [98] - LPG: 0 (Neutral) [107] - PVC: -1 (Weakly bearish) [115] - Fuel Oil: 0 (Neutral) [116] - Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil: 0 (Neutral) [116] - Container Shipping Index (European Line): 0 (Neutral) [132] - Staple Fiber: 0 (Neutral) [135] - Bottle Chip: 0 (Neutral) [135] - Offset Printing Paper: 0 (Neutral) [138] - Palm Oil: 0 (Neutral) [147] - Soybean Oil: 0 (Neutral) [147] - Soybean Meal: +1 (Weakly bullish) [150] - Soybean: +1 (Weakly bullish) [150] - Corn: 0 (Neutral) [153] - Sugar: -1 (Weakly bearish) [157] - Cotton: 0 (Neutral) [163] - Peanut: 0 (Neutral) [166] 2. Report's Core Views - The report provides a comprehensive analysis of various commodity futures, including precious metals, base metals, energy, agricultural products, etc., and gives investment ratings and trend analysis for each commodity [1][2]. - For each commodity, it presents detailed fundamental data, such as prices, trading volumes, open interests, and spreads, and also includes relevant macro and industry news [6][11][15]. 3. Summaries by Commodity Precious Metals - Gold: Geopolitical cease - fire, with a trend strength of -1, prices may be under pressure [2][9]. - Silver: Continuing to rise, with a trend strength of 1 [2][9]. Base Metals - Copper: Positive sentiment, firm prices, with a neutral trend strength. China's manufacturing PMI improvement, trade agreement hopes, and some industry developments affect the market [11][13]. - Tin: Tight current situation but weak expectations, neutral trend strength [14][16]. - Nickel: Support from the ore end is loosening, and the smelting end limits the upside potential, neutral trend [18][21]. - Stainless Steel: Inventory is slightly decreasing, steel prices are recovering but with limited elasticity, neutral trend [18][21]. Energy - Lithium Carbonate: The contradiction of warehouse receipts is relieved, and the price is running weakly, with a trend strength of -1 [22][24]. - Industrial Silicon: Upstream factories are resuming production, and the futures price may回调, neutral trend [25][27]. - Polysilicon: Attention should be paid to the actual spot trading situation, with a trend strength of -1 [25][27]. - Iron Ore: Expectations are fluctuating, with a wide - range shock, trend strength of -1 [28]. - Rebar: Wide - range shock, neutral trend [30][32]. - Hot - Rolled Coil: Wide - range shock, neutral trend [31][32]. - Ferrosilicon: Wide - range shock, neutral trend [35][37]. - Silicomanganese: Wide - range shock, neutral trend [35][37]. - Coke: Wide - range shock, neutral trend [38][41]. - Coking Coal: Affected by news, wide - range shock, neutral trend [39][41]. - Thermal Coal: Daily consumption is recovering, and the price is stabilizing with a shock, neutral trend [43][46]. Agricultural Products - Palm Oil: The near - term fundamental improvement in the producing area is limited, neutral trend [4][140]. - Soybean Oil: The old - crop soybean inventory in the US is high, and the new - crop planting area is slightly reduced, neutral trend [4][140]. - Soybean Meal: After the report is released, the US soybeans rise slightly, and the Dalian soybean meal may rebound and fluctuate, trend strength of +1 [148][150]. - Soybean: May rebound and fluctuate, trend strength of +1 [148][150]. - Corn: Fluctuating, neutral trend [60][151]. - Sugar: Strong in the domestic market but weak overseas, trend strength of -1 [61][157]. - Cotton: Lacking effective drivers, the price rises and then falls back, neutral trend [62][163]. - Peanut: There is support at the bottom, neutral trend [64][166]. Others - Logs: The main contract is switching, wide - range shock, trend strength of -1 [47][49]. - Rubber: Fluctuating, neutral trend [50][51]. - Synthetic Rubber: Short - term fluctuation, neutral trend [56][58]. - LLDPE: Short - term fluctuation, neutral trend [59][61]. - PP: Spot price fluctuates, trading is light, trend strength of -1 [64][65]. - Caustic Soda: There is still pressure in the later period, trend strength of -1 [67][71]. - Pulp: Fluctuating, neutral trend [73][75]. - Glass: The price of the original sheet is stable, trend strength of -1 [79][81]. - Methanol: Short - term fluctuation, neutral trend [83][86]. - Urea: Fluctuating under pressure, neutral trend [87][90]. - Styrene: Short - term fluctuation, trend strength of -1 [92]. - Soda Ash: The spot market changes little, trend strength of -1 [96][98]. - LPG: Short - term fluctuation, neutral trend [100][107]. - PVC: The trend is weak, trend strength of -1 [112][115]. - Fuel Oil: The weakness continues, and short - term fluctuations decrease, neutral trend [116]. - Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil: Mainly in an oscillating adjustment trend, the spread between high - and low - sulfur in the overseas spot market continues to rise, neutral trend [116]. - Container Shipping Index (European Line): Temporarily on the sidelines, pay attention to the price - holding ability in late July, neutral trend [118][132]. - Staple Fiber: Short - term fluctuation, neutral trend [133][135]. - Bottle Chip: Short - term fluctuation, long PR and short PF strategy, neutral trend [133][135]. - Offset Printing Paper: Fluctuating, neutral trend [137][138].