房地产行业数据点评：6月新房、二手房成交面积同比继续回落

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the real estate industry [7][26]. Core Views - In June, the transaction area of new and second-hand homes continued to decline year-on-year, influenced by weakened demand and high base effects from the previous year [5][26]. - The report suggests that policy measures in the second half of the year need to be strengthened, particularly regarding special bonds for acquiring idle land and accelerating the progress of existing housing projects, which could help stimulate demand and accelerate inventory clearance [5][26]. Summary by Sections Transaction Data - In June, the transaction area of new homes in 30 major cities decreased by 11.3% year-on-year, while it increased by 13.3% month-on-month. This marks the third consecutive month of year-on-year decline, with a cumulative year-on-year decrease of 4.4% for the first half of the year [2][10]. - The transaction area for second-hand homes in 13 monitored cities increased by 1% year-on-year in June, but the growth rate narrowed by 2 percentage points compared to the previous month. The cumulative year-on-year increase for the first half of the year was 18%, down by 4 percentage points from the previous month [2][10]. Inventory Levels - The inventory level of new homes continued to decline in June, with the available area in the top ten cities being 7,770 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 9% and a month-on-month decrease of 0.6%. The absorption cycle remained stable at 19.7 months [3][19]. Sales Performance of Top 100 Real Estate Companies - The sales revenue of the top 100 real estate companies in the first half of the year was 1,836.4 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 11.9%. The sales area was 902.7 million square meters, down 19.7% year-on-year [4][22]. - In June alone, the sales revenue and area were 390.5 billion yuan and 179.5 million square meters, representing year-on-year declines of 15.9% and 25.1%, respectively [4][22]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on two areas: (1) leading real estate companies with strong land acquisition capabilities and reasonable land reserve layouts, such as Poly Developments; (2) leading intermediary agencies benefiting from sustained activity in second-hand home transactions, such as Wo Ai Wo Jia [5][26].