能化延续偏弱对峙

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report suggests a generally bearish outlook for the energy and chemicals sector, with a recommendation to hold short positions in most of the analyzed commodities [1][3] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The energy and chemicals sector should be treated with a continued weak outlook. After the end of the Israel - Iran conflict, crude oil quickly shed its geopolitical premium. While the short - term fundamentals are strong due to low inventory, there is a strong expectation of medium - term oversupply under the OPEC+ production increase cycle [1][2] 3. Summary by Commodity 3.1 Crude Oil - Logic: After the end of the Israel - Iran conflict, crude oil quickly shed its geopolitical premium. The short - term fundamentals are strong due to low inventory, but there is a strong expectation of medium - term oversupply under the OPEC+ production increase cycle [2] - Technical Analysis: The daily - level shows a medium - term oscillatory structure, and the hourly - level shows a short - term downward structure. Today, it oscillated with a reduction in positions, and the short - cycle center of gravity slowly moved down. The short - term resistance level is temporarily seen at 512. The strategy is to hold short positions in the hourly cycle [4] 3.2 Styrene (EB) - Logic: Styrene operating rates remain high, and demand is weak during the off - season. Inventory is at a neutral level, and the fundamentals are weak. There are also expectations of a significant increase in production capacity due to new plant commissions in the medium term [7] - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level shows a short - term downward structure. Today, it oscillated within the day without changing the downward path. After a large gap, the short - term resistance is not standard, and temporarily pay attention to 7340. The strategy is to hold short positions in the hourly cycle [7] 3.3 Rubber - Logic: In May, Thailand's exports of mixed rubber increased by 144% year - on - year, and China's rubber imports also increased significantly. Coupled with the sharp drop in the price of rubber latex in the Thai production area, the expectation of increased supply is gradually being realized. On the demand side, the tire industry is in a state of overall overcapacity, and the inventory of semi - steel tires has continuously increased to a historical high. The downstream demand outlook remains pessimistic. The reverse - seasonal inventory build - up of rubber inventory says it all [9] - Technical Analysis: The daily - level shows a medium - term downward trend, and the hourly - level shows a downward structure. Today, it tested the resistance and then fell back with a reduction in positions, still on the downward path. The strategy is to hold short positions in the hourly cycle, with a stop - loss reference at 14100 [9] 3.4 Synthetic Rubber (BR) - Logic: The fundamentals of synthetic rubber are extremely weak. In addition to the weak demand outlook in the tire sector, there will be a large amount of production capacity of raw material butadiene plants put into operation this year. Currently, the operating rates of butadiene and cis - butadiene rubber have both reached historical highs, and there is a logic of cost collapse in the later stage [12] - Technical Analysis: The daily - level shows a medium - term downward structure, and the hourly - level shows a short - term downward structure. Today, it rose and then fell back, oscillated within the day without changing the downward path. The short - term resistance level is temporarily focused on 11670. The strategy is to hold short positions in the hourly cycle [12] 3.5 PX - Logic: Profits have recovered, and some PX plants have resumed production, with an increase in the operating rate. The polyester demand side is weak, but due to the ongoing destocking, the short - term fundamentals are not weak [14] - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level shows a short - term downward structure. Today, it rose and then fell back, and the test of resistance failed, still in a downward structure. The short - term resistance is temporarily focused on 6870. The strategy is to hold short positions in the hourly cycle [14] 3.6 PTA - Logic: There is an expectation of reduced production in the polyester industry in July, but due to the tight PX inventory, the PTA operating rate has declined. There are no major short - term fundamental contradictions [18] - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level shows a short - term downward structure. Today, it rose and then fell back, and the test of resistance failed, still in a downward structure. The short - term resistance is temporarily focused on 4840. The strategy is to hold short positions in the hourly cycle [18] 3.7 PP - Logic: The number of maintenance plants has increased, and the PP operating rate has declined. However, the newly put - into - operation production capacity has gradually increased recently, and the supply expectation is not weak. Demand is still weak during the off - season, and the short - term fundamentals are bearish [20] - Technical Analysis: The hourly - level shows a short - term downward structure. Today, it fell back with a reduction in positions, continuing the weak trend. The short - term resistance is temporarily focused on 7290. The strategy is to hold short positions in the hourly cycle [20] 3.8 Methanol - Logic: The domestic weekly methanol operating rate is 78.1%, reaching a new high in the past five years, and the supply remains high. With the end of the Israel - Iran conflict, the previously shut - down plants in Iran will quickly resume, and the import expectation is still not weak. Supply is high, and demand is weak during the off - season, with bearish fundamentals [22] - Technical Analysis: The daily - level shows a medium - term downward trend. Today, it fell back with a reduction in positions without changing the downward path. The short - term resistance is temporarily focused on 2510. The strategy is to hold short positions in the hourly cycle [22] 3.9 PVC - Logic: The supply - side operating rate is at a historical median, and the supply is the same as the same period last year. The downstream terminal demand is still weak, and the operating rate remains at the lowest level in the same period. The fundamentals are bearish [25] - Technical Analysis: The daily - level shows a medium - term downward structure, and the hourly - level shows a short - term downward structure. Today, it tested the resistance and then rose and fell back. There is an opportunity to enter short positions in the hourly cycle, with a stop - loss reference at 4955 [25] 3.10 Ethylene Glycol (EG) - Logic: The supply - side maintenance plants will gradually resume; the polyester operating rate on the demand side has declined; the short - term fundamentals have weakened [28] - Technical Analysis: The daily - level shows a medium - term downward structure, and the hourly - level shows a short - term downward structure. Today, it oscillated within the day, with a short - term resistance of 4345. The strategy is to hold short positions in the hourly cycle [28] 3.11 Plastic - Logic: There is pressure from large - scale plant commissions in the medium term, and the supply increase expectation is large. The medium - term view remains bearish [30] - Technical Analysis: The daily - level shows a medium - term downward structure, and the hourly - level shows a downward structure. Today, it oscillated within the day. The resistance is temporarily focused on 7450. The strategy is to hold short positions in the hourly cycle [30]