甲醇日评：短期预计震荡运行-20250701

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core View of the Report - After the cease - fire agreement, the market's risk - aversion sentiment decreased, the geopolitical premium was quickly squeezed out, the domestic crude oil declined, and methanol also corrected. In the future, the market will no longer focus on the escalation of the conflict, and methanol will gradually return to its own fundamentals. Currently, the domestic methanol supply - demand change is small and the driving force is weak. The possible future impact lies in imports. Although the conflict has affected Iran's methanol supply, the overall arrival volume in South America is stable, and the high operating rate of inland coal enterprises has made up for the loss of Middle - East device maintenance to some extent. Last week, the port generally accumulated inventory. It is expected that the methanol price will fluctuate, and the 09 contract is expected to operate in the range of 2300 - 2500 [1] Summary According to the Directory 1. Price and Basis - Futures Prices: MA01 in Taicang was 2413 yuan/ton (- 0.25%), in Guangdong was 2435 yuan/ton (- 1.22%); MA05 was 2325 yuan/ton (- 0.13%); MA09 was 2381 yuan/ton (- 0.50%) compared to June 27, 2025 [1] - Spot Prices: In Shandong, it was 2230 yuan/ton (- 1.33%); in Shaanxi, 2057.50 yuan/ton (- 0.36%); in Sichuan - Chongqing and Hubei, unchanged; in Inner Mongolia, 1947.50 yuan/ton (- 0.38%) [1] - Basis: Taicang spot - MA was 377 yuan/ton, a decrease of 14 yuan/ton [1] 2. Raw Material Prices - Coal Prices: Ordos Q5500, Datong Q5500, and Yulin Q6000 remained unchanged at 430 yuan/ton, 490 yuan/ton, and 495 yuan/ton respectively [1] - Industrial Natural Gas Prices: In Hohhot, it was 3.94 yuan/cubic meter; in Chongqing, 3.30 yuan/cubic meter. Both remained unchanged [1] 3. Profit Situation - Methanol Production Profit: Coal - to - methanol in Chongqing was 493.40 yuan/ton, unchanged; natural gas - to - methanol was - 460 yuan/ton, unchanged [1] - Downstream Profit: Northwest MTO was 562 yuan/ton (+ 2.07%); East China MTO was - 1183.07 yuan/ton (+ 19.69%); acetic acid was 347 yuan/ton (+ 21.00%); MTBE and Yilangtan remained unchanged; formaldehyde was - 262.40 yuan/ton (- 3.96%) [1] 4. Important Information - Domestic: The main methanol contract MA2509 fluctuated narrowly, opened at 2389 yuan/ton, closed at 2381 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan/ton, with a trading volume of 863081 lots and a position of 759974 lots, showing a reduction in volume and position [1] - Foreign: 90% of the methanol plants in a Middle - East country are restarting. Attention should be paid to the later start - up and shipping and loading [1] 5. Trading Strategy - The previous trading day, MA oscillated in the range and closed at 2371 at night. Considering the current situation, the 09 contract is expected to operate in the range of 2300 - 2500 [1]