国新国证期货早报-20250701

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The A-share market showed an overall upward trend on June 30, 2025, with the Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, and ChiNext Index all rising. The trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets decreased compared to the previous Friday [1]. - The prices of coke and coking coal futures were affected by various factors such as production, inventory, and policies. The prices of both showed a downward trend on June 30 [2][3]. - The price of Zhengzhou sugar was influenced by factors such as the expected decline in sugarcane crushing in Brazil and the adjustment of domestic spot prices, showing a volatile trend [4]. - The price of rubber was affected by technical factors and showed a volatile adjustment. The sales volume of the EU passenger car market in May 2025 increased year - on - year, but the cumulative sales volume in the first five months decreased [5]. - The price of soybean meal was affected by factors such as US inventory data and domestic supply and demand. The domestic soybean meal market was in a weak and volatile state [7]. - The price of live hogs was affected by factors such as weak consumer demand and increasing supply, and the upward space of the futures market was limited [7]. - The price of palm oil was in a volatile stage, and the export volume of Malaysia in June increased year - on - year [8]. - The price of Shanghai copper was affected by macro - factors such as the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations and the supply and demand of the copper market. There was uncertainty in the market [8]. - The price of iron ore showed a volatile upward trend on June 30, with an increase in supply and demand [9]. - The price of asphalt showed a volatile upward trend on June 30, but the demand was still weak [9]. - The price of cotton showed a certain change, and the inventory decreased [9]. - The price of logs was in a volatile state, and the demand was weak [10]. - The price of steel was under pressure due to the increase in supply and weak demand, and it continued to fluctuate [12]. - The price of alumina was affected by factors such as supply and demand, and the decline in spot prices may gradually narrow [12]. - The price of Shanghai aluminum was affected by macro - factors and supply - demand fundamentals, and it may be under mild pressure [13]. 3. Summary by Variety Stock Index Futures - On June 30, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.59% to 3444.43 points, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.83% to 10465.12 points, and the ChiNext Index rose 1.35% to 2153.01 points. The trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets was 1486.9 billion yuan, a decrease of 54.2 billion yuan compared to the previous Friday. The CSI 300 Index closed at 3936.08, a rise of 14.32 [1]. Coke and Coking Coal - On June 30, the weighted index of coke closed at 1408.45, a decrease of 6.2. The weighted index of coking coal closed at 832.7 yuan, a decrease of 9.4. The supply of carbon elements was still abundant, and the downstream iron - making in the off - season did not decline. For coking coal, the policy may strengthen the control of over - production, and the inventory continued to decline [2][3][4]. Zhengzhou Sugar - Affected by the expected decline in sugarcane crushing in Brazil and the increase in domestic spot prices, the Zhengzhou sugar 2509 contract showed a volatile trend. It closed slightly higher during the day and slightly lower at night [4]. Rubber - Due to short - term over - increase, the Shanghai rubber showed a volatile adjustment on June 30. The sales volume of the EU passenger car market in May 2025 increased by 1.6% year - on - year, but the cumulative sales volume in the first five months decreased by 0.6%. Thailand's total exports of natural rubber and mixed rubber in the first five months increased by 14.3% year - on - year [5]. Soybean Meal - In the international market, the US soybean inventory as of June 1 was higher than expected, which put pressure on the near - term contracts. In the domestic market, the supply of soybean meal was large, and the demand was limited, so the price was in a weak and volatile state [7]. Live Hogs - On June 30, the live - hog futures showed a weak and volatile trend. The consumer demand was weak, and the supply of commodity pigs was expected to increase, so the upward space of the futures market was limited [7]. Palm Oil - On June 30, the palm oil was in a volatile stage, and the K - line closed with a lower shadow. The export volume of Malaysia from June 1 - 30 increased by 4.52% compared to the previous month [8]. Shanghai Copper - The price of Shanghai copper was affected by macro - factors such as the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations and the supply and demand of the copper market. There was uncertainty in the market. If the tariff negotiation results were good, the copper price was expected to rise; otherwise, it may fall [8]. Iron Ore - On June 30, the iron - ore 2509 contract closed up 0.21% at 715.5 yuan. The supply and demand both increased, and the short - term trend was volatile [9]. Asphalt - On June 30, the asphalt 2509 contract closed up 0.14% at 3564 yuan. The processing profit improved slightly, but the demand was still weak, and the short - term price was volatile [9]. Cotton - The night - session of the Zhengzhou cotton main contract closed at 13730 yuan/ton on June 30. The cotton inventory decreased by 29 contracts [9]. Logs - The log 2509 contract showed a volatile trend on June 30. The demand was weak, and the inventory in ports increased slightly [10]. Steel - On June 30, the rb2510 contract closed at 2997 yuan/ton, and the hc2510 contract closed at 3123 yuan/ton. The supply of steel increased, the demand was weak, and the price continued to fluctuate [12]. Alumina - On June 30, the ao2509 contract closed at 2985 yuan/ton. The supply was loose, the demand was weak, and the decline in spot prices may gradually narrow [12]. Shanghai Aluminum - On June 30, the al2508 contract closed at 20580 yuan/ton. Affected by macro - factors and supply - demand fundamentals, the price may be under mild pressure [13].