集运日报：SCFIS补涨，船司挺价难度仍较高，空单可考虑部分止盈，近期博弈难度较大，建议轻仓参与或观望。-20250701

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given documents 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the context of geopolitical conflicts, the game in the shipping and related markets is difficult. It is recommended to participate with light positions or stay on the sidelines [1][2] - With no significant change in overall supply - demand, the market sentiment is bearish, and the market fluctuates widely. Attention should be paid to negotiation results, tariff policies, the Middle - East situation, and spot freight rates [2] 3. Summary by Related Contents 3.1 Shipping Freight Index - On June 30, the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (SCFIS) for the European route was 2123.24 points, up 9.6% from the previous period; for the US - West route, it was 1619.19 points, down 22.3% from the previous period [1] - On June 27, the Ningbo Export Container Freight Index (NCFI) composite index was 1366.47 points, down 1.13% from the previous period; the European route was 1442.95 points, up 11.03% from the previous period; the US - West route was 1553.68 points, down 2.04% from the previous period [1] - On June 27, the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) was 1861.51 points, down 8.08 points from the previous period; the European line price was 2030 USD/TEU, up 10.63% from the previous period; the US - West route was 2578 USD/FEU, down 7.00% from the previous period [1] - On June 27, the China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) composite index was 1369.34 points, up 2.0% from the previous period; the European route was 1640.72 points, up 3.9% from the previous period; the US - West route was 1212.09 points, down 3.6% from the previous period [1] 3.2 Market and Contract Information - On June 30, the closing price of the 2508 main contract was 1761.4, with a decline of 1.92%, a trading volume of 32,700 lots, and an open interest of 39,200 lots, an increase of 168 lots from the previous day [2] - The SCFIS has been rising continuously, but the overall supply - demand has not changed significantly, and the market is bearish with wide - range fluctuations [2] 3.3 Strategy Recommendations - Short - term Strategy: Without an obvious fundamental turnaround, it is recommended to try short positions on rallies. For the 2508 contract, it is recommended to try short positions lightly when it rebounds above 2000 (with a profit margin of more than 200 points), and consider taking profits on short positions. Risk - takers can consider lightly trying long positions on the 2510 contract below 1300, setting stop - losses and take - profits [3] - Arbitrage Strategy: In the context of international turmoil and large fluctuations, it is recommended to stay on the sidelines for now [3] - Long - term Strategy: It is recommended to take profits when each contract rallies, wait for the correction to stabilize, and then judge the subsequent direction [3] 3.4 Other Information - Trump said he would not extend the 90 - day tariff suspension period for most countries and regions after July 9. Once the negotiation deadline expires, trade punishment measures will take effect unless an agreement is reached [4] - The Israeli Defense Forces informed the domestic political leadership that they tend to reach an agreement with Hamas rather than occupy the Gaza Strip [4]