【国富期货早间看点】ITS马棕6月出口增加4.7% USDA预计美豆2025年种植面积为8340万英亩-20250701

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints The report presents overnight and spot market conditions for various commodities, including palm oil, soybeans, and their related products. It also provides important fundamental information such as weather forecasts, international and domestic supply - demand data, macro - economic news, and details on fund flows and potential arbitrage opportunities in the futures market. Summary by Directory 1. Overnight Market Quotes - The closing prices and daily/overnight percentage changes of multiple futures contracts are presented, including BMD's September palm oil, ICE's September Brent crude, NYMEX's August US crude, CBOT's November soybeans, December soybean meal, and December soybean oil. The exchange rates of multiple currencies including the US dollar index, CNY/USD, MYR/USD, etc. are also shown with their respective percentage changes [1]. 2. Spot Market Quotes - Spot prices, basis, and basis changes of DCE's September 2025 palm oil, soybean oil, and soybean meal in different regions (North, East, South China for palm oil; Shandong, Jiangsu, Guangdong, Tianjin for soybean oil and soybean meal) are provided [2]. - The CNF premiums, premium changes, and CNF quotes of imported soybeans from regions like Brazil and Argentina are presented [3]. 3. Important Fundamental Information 3.1. Weather in Producing Areas - The future weather outlook (July 5 - 9) for US soybean - producing states indicates that precipitation will be close to or higher than normal, and temperatures will be higher than normal. The weather in the US Midwest on Tuesday is mainly dry, with temperatures close to or higher than normal. The 6 - 10 - day outlook suggests dry weather on Wednesday, and local to scattered showers from Thursday to Sunday, with temperatures close to or higher than normal from Wednesday to Thursday and higher than normal from Friday to Sunday [4][6]. 3.2. International Supply and Demand - Multiple institutions' data shows that Malaysia's palm oil exports in June increased compared to the previous month. Indonesia raised the reference price of crude palm oil in July but kept the export tax unchanged. Indian importers cancelled 65,000 tons of palm oil import orders. USDA's reports show details on US old - crop soybean inventory, consumption, expected planting area, crop growth, export, and bio - fuel usage data [8][9][10]. 3.3. Domestic Supply and Demand - On June 30, the trading volume of soybean oil, palm oil, and soybean meal decreased compared to the previous trading day. The开机 rate of oil mills decreased. The commercial inventories of major oils increased. The "Agricultural Product Wholesale Price 200 Index" and the "Vegetable Basket Product Wholesale Price Index" decreased slightly, and the prices of some agricultural products changed [12][13][14]. 4. Macroeconomic News 4.1. International News - The probability of the Fed maintaining or cutting interest rates in July and September is given. The US Dallas Fed's business activity index and Chicago PMI are reported. The EU extended sanctions against Russia [16]. 4.2. Domestic News - The exchange rate of the US dollar against the Chinese yuan decreased on June 30. The People's Bank of China conducted a 7 - day reverse repurchase operation, achieving a net investment. China's manufacturing PMI improved in June. Anti - dumping duties on imported stainless steel products were continued, and a tax credit policy for foreign investors was announced [18]. 5. Fund Flows - On June 30, 2025, the futures market had a net capital outflow of 15.509 billion yuan, with 4.492 billion yuan from commodity futures (including 1.074 billion yuan from agricultural product futures, 0.403 billion yuan inflow in chemical futures, 0.234 billion yuan outflow in black - series futures, and 3.586 billion yuan outflow in metal futures) and 11.017 billion yuan from stock index futures [21]. 6. Arbitrage Tracking - Potential arbitrage opportunities for oilseeds and related products are presented, including price differences between different contract months and different varieties [23].