Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the Southeast Asia Staples and Discretionary sectors, but it highlights various performance metrics and trends across different countries in the region. Core Insights - Commodity prices have generally fallen across most regions, contributing to a decrease in inflation rates in several Southeast Asian countries [2][9] - Economic growth in Southeast Asia is expected to maintain a moderate pace in the second half of 2025, with overall growth rates projected between 4% and 5% [3] - Consumer confidence varies significantly across the region, with Indonesia experiencing a notable decline in consumer sentiment [20] Economic Overview - In May 2025, Thailand's CPI decreased by 0.57%, marking two consecutive months of deflation, primarily driven by lower food and energy prices [2][23] - Malaysia's inflation rate fell to 1.2%, the lowest in 51 months, while Vietnam's CPI increased by 3.24%, indicating moderate inflation [2][9] - The overall economic activity in Indonesia showed signs of slowing, with GDP growth in 1Q25 at 4.87%, the lowest since 3Q21 [15] Consumer Sector Performance - In May 2025, Indonesia's essential and discretionary consumption sectors saw increases of 6.55% and 6.17%, respectively, outperforming the index [4] - The consumer confidence index in Indonesia dropped to 117.50, the lowest since September 2022, reflecting concerns about job availability and economic conditions [20] - Singapore's food and beverage sales reached SGD 9.5 billion in May 2025, marking a year-on-year growth of 1.9% [34] Market Trends - The report indicates that most consumer sectors in May 2025 experienced valuation increases, with Indonesia's essential and discretionary consumption PE historical percentiles at 5% and 17%, respectively [4] - The stock market performance in May showed mixed results, with Indonesia's essential consumption sector outperforming the index, while Thailand's discretionary consumption sector lagged [4][14] - Vietnam's essential and discretionary consumption sectors underperformed the index, with growth rates of 2.64% and 3.72%, respectively [4] Inflation and Pricing Trends - In May 2025, Indonesia's CPI rose by 1.60% year-on-year, with core inflation dropping to 2.40%, providing room for monetary policy adjustments [18] - Thailand's consumer price index showed a significant decline, while Singapore's core inflation remained low at 0.6% [31][23] - Vietnam's CPI increased by 3.24% in May, driven by rising costs in housing, utilities, and food services [39]
东南亚消费行业5月跟踪报告：多数地区商品价格走低
Haitong Securities International·2025-07-01 07:39