中辉有色观点-20250701

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Gold is expected to trade in a high - level range. The long - term bullish logic remains unchanged due to the reshaping of the global order and the trend of fiscal and monetary easing, despite short - term price fluctuations caused by tariff negotiations and inflation changes [1][3]. - Silver will experience range - bound trading, lacking new driving forces [1][4]. - For copper, it is recommended to hold some long positions and take partial profits at high prices. In the long run, copper is expected to rise due to the tight global copper mine supply [1][6]. - Zinc is under pressure to rebound. In the long term, with increasing supply and weakening demand, short - selling opportunities on rallies should be seized [1][8]. - Aluminum may face pressure as the off - season approaches, and short - selling opportunities on rallies are suggested [1][11]. - Nickel is likely to rebound and then decline. Short - selling on rebounds is recommended, considering the inventory pressure in the downstream [1][13]. - Industrial silicon is under pressure to rebound. Short - selling opportunities on rallies should be watched [1]. - Carbonate lithium is under pressure to rebound. Short - selling at high prices is advised as the fundamental situation remains one of oversupply [1][15]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Gold - Market Review: Gold prices fluctuated due to Canada's compromise in tariff negotiations and Trump's criticism of the Fed [2]. - Basic Logic: German inflation decreased, and there were compromises in trade negotiations among countries. However, future variables are still large. The long - term bullish logic of gold remains intact [3]. - Strategy Recommendation: Pay attention to the support around 760. Consider long - term investment opportunities [4]. Silver - Market Review: Lacks new driving forces, showing range - bound trading. - Basic Logic: The logic has not changed significantly, and the ratio of gold to silver has returned to the normal range [1]. - Strategy Recommendation: Focus on the support at 8550 [4]. Copper - Market Review: Shanghai copper oscillated around the 80,000 - yuan mark [5]. - Industrial Logic: Overseas copper mine supply is tight, and during the consumption off - season, the strong demand from the power and new - energy vehicle sectors offsets the weakness in traditional demand [5]. - Strategy Recommendation: Hold some long positions and take partial profits at high prices. Be cautious of the risk of price drops at high levels. In the long term, copper is expected to rise. The short - term focus range for Shanghai copper is [78,500, 81,000] yuan/ton, and for LME copper is [9,700, 9,900] dollars/ton [1][6]. Zinc - Market Review: Zinc rebounded under pressure and oscillated [7]. - Industrial Logic: In 2025, the zinc ore supply is expected to be looser. Domestic inventories have slightly increased, and downstream demand is weak [7]. - Strategy Recommendation: Zinc is under pressure to rebound and will trade in a narrow range. In the long term, short - selling opportunities on rallies should be grasped. The focus range for Shanghai zinc is [22,200, 22,800] yuan/ton, and for LME zinc is [2,700, 2,850] dollars/ton [8][9]. Aluminum - Market Review: Aluminum prices rebounded under pressure, and alumina stabilized at a low level [10]. - Industrial Logic: The off - season in the terminal field is deepening, and inventories of aluminum ingots and aluminum rods are showing signs of accumulation. The supply of alumina is relatively loose [11]. - Strategy Recommendation: Consider short - selling opportunities on rallies for aluminum, paying attention to inventory changes. The main operating range is [20,000 - 20,800] yuan/ton. Alumina is expected to trade in a low - level range [11]. Nickel - Market Review: Nickel prices rebounded weakly, and stainless steel prices rebounded and then declined [12]. - Industrial Logic: The supply pressure of nickel is obvious, and the stainless steel industry is facing over - supply due to the off - season and high inventory [13]. - Strategy Recommendation: Short - sell on rebounds for nickel and stainless steel, paying attention to inventory changes. The main operating range for nickel is [118,000 - 122,000] yuan/ton [13]. Carbonate Lithium - Market Review: The main contract LC2509 reduced positions by over 10,000 lots and opened high and closed low [14]. - Industrial Logic: The market fundamentals remain in a state of oversupply, and the inventory is expected to continue to increase. Although the number of warehouse receipts has decreased recently, the total inventory has reached a new high [15]. - Strategy Recommendation: Short - sell at high prices in the range of [61,700 - 63,600] yuan/ton [15].