生猪：关注7月放养群体出栏积极性

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The current futures market has entered the expected trading stage. The expectation of state reserve purchases has led to the formation of a policy bottom sentiment, and the consensus bullish expectation from July to August has boosted the near - end sentiment. The spot market has been strengthening continuously. However, the large number of piglets sold by groups in the first quarter will start to be slaughtered in July, limiting the upside space of the spot price. The impact path of this round of inventory reduction is more complex and requires consideration of factors such as weight reduction, spot price reaction, and small - scale farmers' hoarding behavior. Traders should wait for subsequent spot price verification and pay attention to setting stop - loss and take - profit levels. The short - term support level for the LH2509 contract is 13,000 yuan/ton, and the resistance level is 14,500 yuan/ton [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - Spot Prices: The Henan spot price is 14,980 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton; the Sichuan spot price is 14,400 yuan/ton, up 500 yuan/ton; the Guangdong spot price is 16,240 yuan/ton, up 400 yuan/ton [1]. - Futures Prices: The price of the LH2507 contract is 13,850 yuan/ton, up 225 yuan/ton; the price of the LH2509 contract is 13,870 yuan/ton, down 135 yuan/ton; the price of the LH2511 contract is 13,355 yuan/ton, down 90 yuan/ton [1]. - Trading Volume and Open Interest: The trading volume of the LH2507 contract is 2,960 lots, an increase of 1,677 lots from the previous day, and the open interest is 209 lots, a decrease of 2,050 lots from the previous day; the trading volume of the LH2509 contract is 38,341 lots, an increase of 14,286 lots from the previous day, and the open interest is 81,426 lots, an increase of 1,424 lots from the previous day; the trading volume of the LH2511 contract is 7,316 lots, an increase of 3,938 lots from the previous day, and the open interest is 41,889 lots, an increase of 872 lots from the previous day [1]. - Price Spreads: The basis of the LH2507 contract is 1,130 yuan/ton, down 175 yuan/ton; the basis of the LH2509 contract is 1,110 yuan/ton, up 185 yuan/ton; the basis of the LH2511 contract is 1,625 yuan/ton, up 140 yuan/ton; the 7 - 9 spread of live hogs is - 20 yuan/ton, up 360 yuan/ton; the 9 - 11 spread of live hogs is 515 yuan/ton, down 45 yuan/ton [1]. 3.2 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral market sentiment. The range of trend intensity is an integer within the [- 2,2] interval, where - 2 represents the most bearish view and 2 represents the most bullish view [2].