政策与大类资产配置月观察：货币政策调控强度或升级

Policy and Economic Environment - The report highlights the focus on the 16th Summer Davos Forum, emphasizing the need for entrepreneurs to play a larger role in the current economic landscape, with discussions centered on global economic challenges and opportunities for collaboration [10][11] - The State Council meeting discussed accelerating the construction of a technology powerhouse, emphasizing the importance of technological self-reliance and innovation to drive economic growth [12][13] Equity Market Analysis - The A-share market saw significant rebounds in June, with the CSI 500 and Shenzhen Composite Index rising by 4.3% and 5.22% respectively, driven by positive developments in US-China negotiations and financial stability measures [4][27] - The report notes that the MSCI China A-share Index increased by 3.03% in June, reflecting improved market sentiment [27] Fixed Income Market Analysis - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) indicated a shift towards increased monetary policy easing, with a net withdrawal of 553.9 billion yuan in June, highlighting the need for liquidity support amid seasonal funding pressures [4][28] - The report mentions that the PBOC's second-quarter monetary policy meeting emphasized the importance of maintaining a stable financing environment to support economic recovery [28] Commodity Market Analysis - The report indicates a general upward trend in non-ferrous metals and a significant rebound in crude oil prices, while precious metals experienced a pullback [4] - The impact of US tariff policies is noted as a contributing factor to market dynamics, particularly in the copper market [4][17] Foreign Exchange Market Analysis - The US dollar index fell by 2.68% in June, closing at 96.77, influenced by uncertainties surrounding US tariff policies and the approaching debt ceiling [5][28] - The report suggests that the foreign exchange market remains stable, with a balanced supply-demand situation and a stable RMB exchange rate [28] Industry Policy Insights - The report discusses the ongoing efforts to enhance the integration of technology and industry, with a focus on supporting innovation and addressing key technological challenges [12][13] - It highlights the importance of structural policies to support sectors such as real estate and technology, indicating a shift in focus towards stabilizing the real estate market [28][29]