煤焦月度报告20250701：7月基本面料再度转弱，双焦反弹恐难持续-20250701

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core Views of the Report - In June, coking coal stopped falling and rebounded, driving the black market to rebound from a low level. By the end of June, coke 09 rose 6.89% to close at 1404, and coking coal 09 rose 11.26% to close at 825 [6][12]. - Looking ahead to July, macro - level factors such as Sino - US trade negotiations and the Politburo meeting in July will still greatly affect the market. At the industrial level, after the end of the safety production month, coal mines are expected to gradually resume production, and coke supply is expected to recover to some extent. However, July and August are off - peak demand seasons, and terminal demand is under greater pressure to decline, with molten iron still expected to decline, but at a relatively slow rate. The fundamentals of coking coal and coke are likely to weaken again in July, and the upward space of the futures market is expected to be limited, possibly entering a volatile and weakening market again. It is recommended to hold previous short positions and look for opportunities to add short positions on rebounds [6][12]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Coke Monthly Market Tracking 3.1.1 Price - In June, coke futures rebounded from a low level, but are likely to weaken again in July. Spot prices had the third and fourth rounds of price cuts in June, and there are expectations of two rounds of price increases in July. The prices of coke in various regions and ports generally decreased in June [10][13][14]. - The freight for coke transportation fluctuated slightly in June [16]. 3.1.2 Supply - In June, coke enterprises' supply decreased due to environmental protection pressure. The capacity utilization rate and daily output of independent coke enterprises decreased slightly. As of June 30, the capacity utilization rate of the national independent coke enterprise full - sample was 73.35%, and the daily coke output was 64.51 tons. The capacity utilization rate and daily output of 247 sample steel mills' coking plants increased slightly [23][25][30]. 3.1.3 Demand - Molten iron production first decreased and then increased in June, remaining at a high level, and is expected to decline at a slow rate in the future. As of June 30, the blast furnace operating rate of 247 sample steel mills was 83.82%, the capacity utilization rate was 90.83%, and the daily molten iron output was 242.29 tons [31][33]. - Speculative sentiment improved, export profits rebounded slightly, and building material transactions remained at a low level [34][36]. 3.1.4 Inventory - In June, inventory reduction was the main trend in all links, and the total inventory decreased. As of June 30, the total coke inventory was 940.87 tons, including 200.09 tons in ports [37][39]. 3.1.5 Profit - The profit per ton of coke was compressed, and the coke futures market profit declined. As of June 30, the profit per ton of 30 independent coke enterprises was - 46 yuan, and the futures market profit of coke 09 decreased by 32.7 yuan/ton to 331.5 yuan/ton [47][49]. 3.1.6 Valuation - The premium of coke 09 increased, and the 9 - 1 spread fluctuated. As of June 30, the basis of coke 09 was - 145.24, and the 9 - 1 spread was - 38.5 [51][53]. 3.2 Coking Coal Monthly Market Tracking 3.2.1 Price - In June, coking coal futures rebounded from a low level, but are likely to weaken again in July. Spot prices mainly weakened in June, and some coal types rebounded slightly recently [56][59]. 3.2.2 Supply - In June, many coal mines in the production areas stopped or reduced production. It is expected that they will gradually resume production in July, but it will take time to fully return to normal production. The operating rate of coal washing plants decreased in June. As of June 30, the operating rate of 110 sample coal washing plants was 59.1%, and the daily output of clean coal was 50.15 tons. The customs clearance of Mongolian coal remained at a medium level, and the year - on - year decline in coking coal imports in the first five months widened [62][67][70]. 3.2.3 Inventory - In June, downstream coking plants and steel mills replenished their inventories moderately in the late month, and the overall inventory decreased. The total coking coal inventory decreased. As of June 30, the total coking coal inventory was 2570.74 tons [71][73]. 3.2.4 Valuation - Coking coal 09 had a slight premium, and the 9 - 1 spread weakened. As of June 30, the basis of coking coal 09 was - 25, and the 9 - 1 spread was - 36 [93][95].