国元期货：国元点睛

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - Domestic futures main contracts showed mixed performance. Polysilicon rose over 4%, industrial silicon nearly 3%, rapeseed meal and PX over 1%. On the downside, the container shipping index (European line) dropped nearly 2%, and SC crude oil, glass, coking coal, and methanol fell over 1% [4]. - Different futures contracts have various trends and forecasts based on their specific fundamentals and market conditions. For example, copper prices may face short - term upward risks but also callback risks; aluminum prices will continue to operate at a high level in the short term; lithium carbonate prices are expected to be weak and volatile [5][6][11]. 3. Summary by Futures Contracts Metal Futures - Copper (沪铜2508合约): Closed down today. Short - term upward risk is high, and there is a callback risk. Support level is 78300 [5]. - Aluminum (沪铝2508合约): Flat compared to yesterday. Cost support weakened, but due to macro interference, short - term prices will remain high. Resistance level is 20000 [6]. - Lead (沪铅2508合约): Rose in a volatile manner. With demand recovery and supply reduction, prices are expected to be strong and volatile. Short - term buying on dips is recommended. Resistance is 17200, support is 16400 [7]. - Lithium Carbonate (碳酸锂2509合约): Weak and volatile. With weakening demand and high supply, the fundamental surplus remains. Short - term selling on rallies is recommended. Resistance is 64000 [11]. - Iron Ore (铁矿2509合约): The main contract rose. With expected decline in molten iron production and off - season demand, it will operate in a short - term range. Pressure is 750, support is 650 [13]. - Coking Coal (焦煤2509合约): Fell in a volatile manner. Some mines cut production. Pay attention to the third - quarter pricing of Mongolian coal. It will operate in a volatile range. Pressure is 900, support is 700 [15]. - Coke (焦炭2509合约): Fell in a volatile manner. After the fourth price cut, it will operate in a short - term range. Pressure is 1500, support is 1100 [16]. - Rebar (螺纹2510合约): Rose in a volatile manner. High exports support, but supply pressure emerges. It will operate in a short - term range. Pressure is 3100, support is 2900 [17]. - Nickel (沪镍2507合约): Rose in a volatile manner. With upstream price support and weakening demand, it is short - term strong and volatile. Pressure is 125000, support is 115000 [19][20]. - Stainless Steel (不锈钢2508合约): Rose in a volatile manner. With reduced production and weakening downstream expectations, it will operate in a short - term range. Pressure is 13000, support is 12200 [21]. Chemical Futures - Natural Rubber (天胶2509合约): The price center dropped. With a lack of short - term drivers, it is likely to oscillate below the 40 - day moving average [24]. - PTA (PTA2509合约): Closed with a doji at 4800. Short - term fundamentals change little, and the market follows cost fluctuations [25]. - Ethylene Glycol (乙二醇2509合约): Fell continuously under short - position increase. There is an expectation to test lower lows. It will oscillate above if it cannot break through effectively [27]. - Plastic (塑料2509合约): Closed down under the 10 - day moving average. With a lack of short - term drivers, it will oscillate below the 10 - day moving average [29]. - Polypropylene (聚丙烯2509合约): Oscillated around the 60 - day moving average. Short - term fundamentals change little, and it will mainly oscillate [30]. - Soda Ash (纯碱2509合约): Fell 0.92% on June 30, with an increase of 79,300 lots. Some device overhauls are expected to boost the market. It is expected to rise in a short - term volatile manner, but the upward momentum is limited [31]. - Glass (玻璃2509合约): Fell 1.28% on June 30, with an increase of 30,700 lots. After the market digested policy benefits, it will likely operate in a short - term range due to shipping pressure and cooling policy speculation [32]. - Urea (尿素2509合约): Fell 0.64% on June 30, with an increase of 1,200 lots. It is expected to oscillate in the short term [35]. - Caustic Soda (烧碱2509合约): Fell 0.47% on June 30, with an increase of 1,100 lots. With falling spot prices, it will rise in a short - term volatile manner [37]. Agricultural Futures - Soybean Meal (豆粕2509合约): Rose 0.78% and reduced positions by 53,000 lots. Traders adjusted positions before the key report. Global supply is expected to be abundant. Support is to wait and see, pressure is 3100 [40]. - Rapeseed Meal (菜粕2509合约): Rose 1.14%. Both 2509 and 2601 contracts reduced positions by over 10,000 lots. Short - covering drove the price up. Support is to wait and see, pressure is 2700 [43]. - Soybean Oil (豆油2509合约): Fell 0.22%. With high inventory pressure, the market is cautious. Support is 7600, pressure is 8300 [44]. - Palm Oil (棕榈油2509合约): Fell 0.43%. With high inventory pressure, the market is cautious. Support is to wait and see, pressure is 9000 [46]. - Corn (玉米2509合约): Weak and volatile. The fundamentals are in a "lean period". It will operate in a range. Support is 2200, pressure is 2450 [49]. - Live Pig (生猪2509合约): Fell 0.86%. Supply is high, and demand is weak in the short term. But the medium - term price may rebound. The next - day range is 13700 - 14000. Support is 13500, pressure is 14000 [50]. - Apple (苹果2510合约): Fell 0.1%. The spot market has weak supply and demand. The new - season production reduction is within 10%. It will oscillate. Pressure is 8000, support is 7500 [51]. - Egg (鸡蛋2508合约): Rose 0.68%. Demand for low - price replenishment increased, but supply is still high. It will oscillate at a low level. The next - day range is 3530 - 3600. Pressure is 3700, support is 3500 [52]. - Cotton (棉花2509合约): The closing price was flat. If the commercial inventory continues to decline, there may be speculation on inventory in the third quarter. The USDA report is positive. Pay attention to weather conditions. Pressure is 14000, support is 13500 [54]. - Sugar (白糖2509合约): Rose 0.35%. Domestic fundamentals are positive, but raw sugar is still low. There is a potential for decline. Pressure is 5850, support is 5700 [56]. - Peanut (花生2510合约): Fell 0.17%. Although the hype in the producing area has cooled down, prices are unlikely to fall sharply. It will adjust slightly downward. Pressure is 8500, support is 8000 [57]. - Log (原木2509合约): Fell 0.38%. Spot prices are stable. It will oscillate in the off - season. Pay attention to delivery and capital movements. Pressure is 850, support is 750 [58]. Energy Futures - Crude Oil (原油2508合约): Fell 1.1%. After the cease - fire agreement between Iran and Israel, the risk premium decreased. Pressure is 500, support is 450 [59]. - Fuel Oil (燃料油2509合约): Fell 0.5%. It followed the decline of crude oil. Pressure is 3000, support is 2800 [60]. Shipping Futures - Container Shipping Index (European Line) (集运欧线2508合约): Fell 1.92% on June 30. The Shanghai container shipping index showed a split trend. The index will gradually turn to oscillation [62].