固定收益：投资策略：转债市场研判及“十强转债”组合

Market Overview - In June 2025, the stock market experienced an overall rise due to the easing of Middle Eastern tensions and multiple thematic catalysts, while bond market interest rates declined [4][7] - The average parity of convertible bonds reached a near-high level, with significant valuation increases for bond-like convertible bonds [5][7] - The China Securities Convertible Bond Index closed at 442.1 points on June 27, marking a 2.68% increase for the month [7] Convertible Bond Market Analysis - As of June 27, the arithmetic average parity of convertible bonds was 103.14 yuan, up 3.77% from the previous month, placing it in the 98th percentile since 2023 [7][23] - The average conversion premium rate for bonds in the price range of 90 to 125 yuan was 21.13%, also in the 48th percentile for 2023 [7][23] - The average yield to maturity (YTM) for bond-like convertible bonds fell below zero, indicating a shift in market sentiment [7][29] Recommended Convertible Bonds - The "Top Ten Convertible Bonds" for July 2025 include: - Shenzhen Gas Convertible Bond (113067.SH): High balance and stable profitability, rated AAA [31][32] - Hongcheng Convertible Bond (110077.SH): Stable operations and high dividend payout, rated AA+ [31][43] - Weir Convertible Bond (113616.SH): Strong growth in consumer electronics and automotive sectors, rated AA+ [31][55] - Jingce Convertible Bond (123176.SZ): Urgent need for domestic semiconductor testing equipment, rated AA- [31][66] - Haoyuan Convertible Bond (118051.SH): Recovery trend in innovative drug development, rated AA- [31][79] - Huakang Convertible Bond (111018.SH): Leading position in functional sugar alcohols, rated AA- [31][90] - Bohai Convertible Bond (113069.SH): Steady growth in special alloy materials, rated AA [31][101] - Dongcai Convertible Bond (113064.SH): Increased demand for high-frequency resin materials driven by AI server construction, rated AA [31][113] Industry Insights - The gas industry, represented by Shenzhen Gas, is experiencing steady growth in natural gas sales, with a 5.06% year-on-year increase in supply volume [36] - The environmental governance sector, led by Hongcheng Environment, shows stable revenue growth from water supply and treatment services, with a focus on expanding its business footprint [46] - The semiconductor industry, highlighted by Weir Group, is benefiting from increased demand in automotive electronics and consumer electronics, with significant revenue growth projected [58] - The healthcare sector, represented by Haoyuan Pharmaceutical, is positioned to capitalize on the recovery of innovative drug research and development [82]