瑞达期货菜籽系产业日报-20250701

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Views of the Report - For rapeseed meal, the domestic supply is becoming more abundant as imported soybeans arrive at ports, which suppresses the price of the meal market. Although the demand for rapeseed meal in aquaculture is increasing due to the peak season, the good substitution advantage of soybean meal weakens the demand expectation for rapeseed meal. The rapeseed meal futures may continue to fluctuate narrowly in the short - term [2]. - For rapeseed oil, it is the off - season for domestic oil consumption, and the supply of vegetable oil is relatively loose. The high inventory pressure of rapeseed oil mills restricts the market price. However, the decline in the oil mill operating rate reduces the output pressure. The potential tightening of China - Canada economic and trade relations may affect rapeseed exports to China. The rapeseed oil futures may experience intensified short - term fluctuations due to external macro - policies [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - Futures prices: The closing price of the active contract of rapeseed oil was 9477 yuan/ton, up 62 yuan; that of rapeseed meal was 2586 yuan/ton, up 14 yuan; that of ICE rapeseed was 709.8 Canadian dollars/ton, up 11.1 Canadian dollars; and that of rapeseed was 4950 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan [2]. - Spreads and positions: The 9 - 1 spread of rapeseed oil was 49 yuan/ton, down 7 yuan; that of rapeseed meal was 280 yuan/ton, up 9 yuan. The net long positions of the top 20 futures holders for rapeseed oil were 25491 lots, down 1736 lots; for rapeseed meal, it was - 16349 lots, up 7198 lots [2]. - Warehouse receipts: The number of rapeseed oil warehouse receipts was 100, unchanged; that of rapeseed meal was 20529, down 331 [2]. 3.2现货市场 - Spot prices: The spot price of rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 9580 yuan/ton, down 70 yuan; that of rapeseed meal in Nantong was 2490 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan. The average price of rapeseed oil was 9600 yuan/ton, down 70 yuan; the import cost of rapeseed was 5165.22 yuan/ton, up 119.47 yuan [2]. - Basis and spreads: The basis of the rapeseed oil main contract was 165 yuan/ton, down 19 yuan; that of the rapeseed meal main contract was - 96 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan. The spot spread between rapeseed oil and soybean oil was 1370 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan; that between rapeseed oil and palm oil was 1180 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan; that between soybean meal and rapeseed meal was 350 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - Production and imports: The global predicted annual production of rapeseed was 89.77 million tons, up 0.21 million tons. The total rapeseed import volume in the current month was 33.55 tons, down 15.37 tons [2]. - Inventory and operating rate: The total inventory of rapeseed in oil mills was 15 tons, down 5 tons. The weekly operating rate of imported rapeseed was 11.46%, down 2.8% [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - Import volume: The import volume of rapeseed oil and mustard oil in the current month was 34 tons, up 10 tons; that of rapeseed meal was 28.79 tons, up 4.13 tons [2]. - Inventory and提货量: The coastal rapeseed oil inventory was 11.15 tons, down 1.05 tons; the coastal rapeseed meal inventory was 1.1 tons, up 0.09 tons. The weekly提货量 of rapeseed oil was 3 tons, up 0.19 tons; that of rapeseed meal was 3.48 tons, up 0.61 tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - Production: The monthly production of feed was 2762.1 tons, up 98.1 tons; that of edible vegetable oil was 440.4 tons, down 87 tons [2]. - Consumption: The monthly social consumer goods retail sales of catering revenue was 4578.2 billion yuan, up 411.2 billion yuan [2]. 3.6 Option Market - Implied volatility: The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for rapeseed meal was 18.84%, down 0.57%; that of put options was 18.97%, down 0.45%. The implied volatility of at - the - money call and put options for rapeseed oil was 14.69%, up 0.53% and 0.52% respectively [2]. - Historical volatility: The 20 - day historical volatility of rapeseed meal was 15.49%, down 3.45%; the 60 - day was 20.71%, down 0.7%. The 20 - day historical volatility of rapeseed oil was 14.98%, down 0.2%; the 60 - day was 14.9%, up 0.02% [2]. 3.7 Industry News - On June 30, ICE rapeseed futures jumped as the US - Canada trade negotiation restarted, easing market concerns. The most actively traded November rapeseed contract rose 16.80 Canadian dollars, or 2.4%, to 709.70 Canadian dollars per ton [2]. - On June 29, Canada cancelled the digital service tax to promote trade negotiations with the US. The leaders of the two countries will resume negotiations to reach an agreement before July 21 [2]. - As of June 1, the US soybean inventory was 1.008 billion bushels, up 4% year - on - year. The 2025 US soybean planting area was 83.38 million acres, lower than previous forecasts and estimates, and down 4.2% year - on - year [2]. - Statistics Canada raised the 2024 rapeseed production forecast to 1.918 million tons and lowered the 2025 rapeseed planting area to 21.5 million acres [2].