Shenwan Hongyuan Securities·2025-07-01 09:12Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the transportation industry, indicating expectations for the industry to outperform the overall market [11]. Core Insights - The shipping sector is expected to see performance improvements driven by a shift in oil production policies and a tightening supply of older vessels, with demand for small container ships increasing due to regional industrial shifts [1][2]. - The shipbuilding market is anticipated to recover as demand is expected to rebound following the easing of trade tensions, with new orders and ship prices likely to rise [2]. - The aviation sector is experiencing steady growth in passenger traffic, with a narrowing decline in ticket prices, suggesting a recovery in airline revenues [2]. - The express delivery industry is facing a decline in growth rates, with increased competition in the mid-to-high-end e-commerce segment, but companies like SF Express are expected to maintain strong growth [2][3]. Shipping Sector Summary - The demand for oil tankers and bulk carriers is improving, with Q2 performance estimates showing significant increases for companies like COSCO Shipping Energy and China Merchants Energy [2]. - The small container ship market is experiencing rising charter rates and second-hand prices, with a tight supply situation expected to persist until at least 2030 [2]. Shipbuilding Sector Summary - The easing of the 301 tariffs is expected to release pent-up demand in the shipbuilding market, with new orders likely to increase as trade relations improve [2]. - The report highlights that China's shipbuilding industry is recovering from previous pressures, with new orders returning to a leading position [2]. Aviation Sector Summary - The aviation market is entering a peak season with stable growth in passenger numbers, and airlines are expected to benefit from improved cost structures due to lower fuel prices [2]. - Recommendations include major airlines such as China Southern Airlines and China Eastern Airlines, which are projected to return to profitability [3]. Express Delivery Sector Summary - The express delivery industry is seeing a decrease in growth rates, with competition intensifying in the e-commerce segment, particularly for mid-to-high-end services [2]. - Despite the overall slowdown, SF Express is expected to continue its high growth trajectory, driven by operational expansions and new service offerings [2]. Road and Rail Sector Summary - The report anticipates stable growth in highway traffic and toll revenues, with recommendations for companies like Zhejiang Expressway and Ninghu Expressway [2]. - Rail passenger traffic is also expected to grow, albeit at a slower pace, with recommendations for high-speed rail companies [2].