Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-07-01 09:11Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - SH2509 rose 0.77% to close at 2358 yuan/ton. On the supply side, last week, Jincheng Chemical, Dongying Huatai, and Ordos plants were shut down for maintenance, while Huojiagou, Haohua Yuhang, and Shandong Aluminum plants restarted, with the caustic soda capacity utilization rate increasing by 1.3% to 82.5%. On the demand side, last week, the alumina operating rate decreased by 0.07% to 80.67%; the viscose staple fiber operating rate decreased by 2.23% to 78.57%, and the printing and dyeing operating rate decreased by 0.42% to 60.31%. In terms of inventory, last week, the liquid caustic soda factory inventory increased by 6.51% to 390,400 tons, which is at a moderately high level in the same period. This week, three plants in the Northwest and East China are planned to shut down, and three plants in North China are planned to restart, with the capacity utilization rate expected to rise slightly. There are many caustic soda production plants from June to July, increasing the industry supply pressure in the medium and long term. The alumina price and profit have declined slightly, the growth of the operating rate has stagnated, and the delivery volume of the main suppliers in Shandong has decreased; the non-aluminum off-season has weak rigid demand and resistance to high prices. With the increase in future supply, under the background of limited demand, there is still significant pressure on the caustic soda spot market. In the futures market, since the basis has converged, there is still a lack of positive fundamentals, and the sustainability of the rebound of the 09 contract is questionable. However, since it is close to the cost below 2200, the downward space of the futures price is also limited. In the short term, SH2509 is expected to fluctuate within a range, and the daily K-line should pay attention to the support around 2240 and the pressure around 2400 [3] Summary by Directory Futures Market - The main closing price of caustic soda was 2358 yuan/ton, up 39 yuan; the futures trading volume was 695,140 lots, up 80,795 lots; the contract closing price of caustic soda for January was 2354 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan; the contract closing price of caustic soda for May was 2410 yuan/ton, up 27 yuan; the net position of the top 20 futures traders was -10,586 lots, up 14,324 lots; the futures open interest was 278,829 lots, up 9592 lots [3] 现货市场 - The price of 32% ion-exchange membrane caustic soda in Shandong was 770 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; the price in Jiangsu was 900 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan; the converted 100% caustic soda price in Shandong was 2406.25 yuan/ton, down 31.25 yuan; the basis of caustic soda was 48 yuan/ton, down 71 yuan [3] Upstream Situation - The mainstream price of raw salt in Shandong was 210 yuan/ton, unchanged; the mainstream price in the Northwest was 220 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of steam coal was 635 yuan/ton, unchanged [3] Industry Situation - The mainstream price of liquid chlorine in Shandong was 0 yuan/ton, down 50.5 yuan; the mainstream price in Jiangsu was -225 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan [3] Downstream Situation - The spot price of viscose staple fiber was 13,020 yuan/ton, unchanged; the spot price of alumina was 3080 yuan/ton, unchanged [3] Industry News - From June 20th to 26th, the average capacity utilization rate of Chinese caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons or more was 82.5%, a month-on-month increase of 1.3%. As of June 26th, the factory inventory of fixed liquid caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons or more nationwide was 390,400 tons (wet tons), a month-on-month increase of 6.51% and a year-on-year increase of 10.40% [3]