PX成本支撑偏弱，关注TA高加工费供应压力增大可能

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - PX cost support is weak, and attention should be paid to the possible increase in supply pressure due to high processing fees of PTA [1]. - The PTA downstream polyester operating rate is at a high level, the terminal textile trading has warmed up, and the demand side has rebounded. However, the marginal weakening of PX cost support and high PTA processing fees may lead to continued high operating loads, and attention should be paid to the supply - side recovery pressure [2]. - The cost decline and high short - fiber inventory will continue the weak pattern of the industrial chain, while the low inventory of filament may provide phased support. The risk of weakening demand in the traditional textile off - season needs to be vigilant [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Market Summary PTA&PX - On June 30, the PX main contract closed at 6,796.0 yuan/ton, up 0.65% from the previous trading day, with a basis of 40.0 yuan/ton. The PTA main contract closed at 4,798.0 yuan/ton, up 0.42% from the previous trading day, with a basis of 222.0 yuan/ton [2]. - On the cost side, on June 30, the Brent crude oil main contract closed at 66.34 US dollars/barrel, and WTI closed at 65.07 US dollars/barrel. On the demand side, on June 30, the total trading volume of Light Textile City was 663.0 million meters, and the 15 - day average trading volume was 620.33 million meters [2]. - PX: The cost side is affected by the narrow - range oscillation trend of international crude oil prices, and the support it can provide is relatively limited. The expected commissioning of new devices in Asia may bring supply pressure, and the limited repair space of downstream PTA processing fees may suppress the raw material procurement enthusiasm. It is expected that the PX price will maintain an oscillatory pattern [2]. - PTA: The downstream polyester operating rate of PTA is at a high level, the terminal textile trading has warmed up, and the demand side has rebounded. The strengthening of the basis reflects the tightness of spot goods. The marginal weakening of PX cost support and high PTA processing fees may lead to continued high operating loads, and attention should be paid to the supply - side recovery pressure [2]. Polyester - On June 30, the short - fiber main contract closed at 6,542.0 yuan/ton, up 0.25% from the previous trading day. The spot price in the East China market was 6,730.0 yuan/ton, down 10.0 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, with a basis of 188.0 yuan/ton [3]. - On the supply side, the PX futures price oscillated downward from 7,076 yuan/ton on June 20 to 6,796 yuan/ton on June 30, and the PTA futures main contract also fell from 4,978 yuan/ton to 4,798 yuan/ton during the same period, and the raw material side declined under pressure [3]. - On the demand side, the MA15 trading volume of Light Textile City decreased continuously from 644.4 million meters on June 20 to 609.4 million meters on June 27 and then rebounded slightly, but it was still lower than the level at the beginning of the month, reflecting the lack of sustainability of terminal demand [3]. - In terms of inventory, the inventories of polyester filament FDY/POY/DTY were 18.9/17.2/25.3 days respectively, all lower than the five - year average values of 22.19/20.40/28.42 days, while the inventory of polyester short - fiber was 7.77 days, significantly higher than the five - year average of 4.96 days, indicating that the filament maintained a de - stocking trend, but the short - fiber had significant inventory accumulation pressure [3]. 3.2 Industrial Chain Price Monitoring - PX futures: The main contract price was 6,796 yuan/ton on June 30, up 0.65% from June 27; the main contract trading volume was 295,108 lots, up 29.61%; the main contract position was 115,158 lots, up 3.16% [4]. - PX spot: The CFR price at the main port in China was 866.67 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the FOB price in South Korea was 850 US dollars/ton, up 0.95% [4]. - PTA futures: The main contract price was 4,798 yuan/ton on June 30, up 0.42% from June 27; the main contract trading volume was 1,088,784 lots, up 36.27%; the main contract position was 1,085,040 lots, down 0.81% [4]. - PTA spot: The CFR price at the main port in China was 653 US dollars/ton, unchanged [4]. - Short - fiber futures: The main contract price was 6,542 yuan/ton on June 30, up 0.25% from June 27; the main contract trading volume was 132,190 lots, up 0.05%; the main contract position was 102,404 lots, down 12.71% [4]. - Short - fiber spot: The mainstream price in the East China market was 6,730 yuan/ton, down 0.15% [4]. - Other prices: The prices of some products such as Brent crude oil, US crude oil, CFR Japanese naphtha, ethylene glycol, polyester chips, polyester bottle chips, polyester POY, polyester DTY, and polyester FDY had different changes [4]. - Processing spreads: The processing spreads of naphtha, PX, PTA, polyester chips, polyester bottle chips, polyester short - fiber, polyester POY, polyester DTY, and polyester FDY also had different changes [5]. - Light Textile City trading volume: The total trading volume on June 30 was 663 million meters, down 16.29% from June 27; the trading volume of long - fiber fabrics was 533 million meters, and the trading volume of short - fiber fabrics was 129 million meters [5]. - Industrial chain load rates: The load rates of PTA factories, polyester factories, and Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms remained unchanged [5]. - Inventory days: The inventory days of polyester short - fiber, polyester POY, polyester FDY, and polyester DTY had different changes [5]. 3.3 Industry Dynamics and Interpretation Macro Dynamics - On June 30, Russia launched the largest - scale air strike on Ukraine since the conflict, and a Ukrainian F - 16 fighter jet crashed [6]. - On June 30, the US consumer spending in May unexpectedly decreased by 0.1%, lower than the market - expected increase of 0.1%, inflation rose moderately, the annual rate of the US core PCE price index in May was 2.7%, higher than the expected 2.6%, reaching a new high since February 2025; the monthly rate of the US core PCE price index in May was 0.2%, and the market expected it to remain flat at 0.1%, and traders increased their bets that the Federal Reserve would cut interest rates three times in 2025 [6]. - On June 30, Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari expected two interest - rate cuts starting from September, and the impact of tariffs might lead to a suspension of interest - rate cuts [6]. - On June 30, the National Bureau of Statistics announced that from January to May, the total profit of industrial enterprises above the designated size in the country was 2720.43 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 1.1% [6]. - On June 27, some Fed officials made statements about interest - rate cuts [6]. Supply - Demand - Demand - On June 30, the total trading volume of Light Textile City was 663.0 million meters, a month - on - month decrease of 16.29%, the trading volume of long - fiber fabrics was 533.0 million meters, and the trading volume of short - fiber fabrics was 129.0 million meters [8]. 3.4 Industrial Chain Data Charts - The report provides multiple charts showing the main futures and basis of PX, PTA, and short - fiber, PX and PTA spot prices, PX capacity utilization rate, PTA and short - fiber futures monthly spreads, PTA processing profit, industrial chain load rate, polyester short - fiber and filament production and sales situations, Light Textile City trading volume moving average, and polyester product inventory days [9][11][13][15][16][20][23][24][25][26][27] 3.5 Appendix - The analysis of the future price trends of PX and PTA shows that PX may maintain or rise if the upstream crude oil is stable or rising, and PTA may also have an upward trend due to large basis and increasing demand. However, the possible fluctuations in crude oil prices and the decline in polyester operating rate are risk factors [35][36]