瑞达期货沪铅产业日报-20250701

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report suggests a strategy of shorting on rallies for Shanghai lead futures [3] 2. Core View of the Report - The overall supply of Shanghai lead is expected to increase slightly, but the price is under pressure due to weakening demand. The domestic inventory increases slightly due to the diminishing marginal effect of national subsidies, while the overseas inventory starts to accumulate again, putting significant pressure on lead prices. The overseas economic situation is deteriorating, so it is recommended to short on rallies [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai lead main contract is 17,200 yuan/ton, up 75 yuan; the LME 3 - month lead quote is 2,041.5 dollars/ton, up 3 dollars. The 08 - 09 month contract spread of Shanghai lead is - 25 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan. The Shanghai lead open interest is 82,414 lots, down 753 lots. The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai lead is 119 lots, down 1,022 lots. The Shanghai lead warehouse receipts are 46,389 tons, up 101 tons. The Shanghai Futures Exchange inventory is 51,929 tons, up 638 tons; the LME lead inventory is 271,925 tons, down 1,500 tons [3] 现货市场 - The spot price of Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network 1 lead is 16,925 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan; the spot price of Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals Market 1 lead is 17,180 yuan/ton, down 80 yuan. The basis of the lead main contract is - 250 yuan/ton, down 125 yuan; the LME lead premium (0 - 3) is - 22.14 dollars/ton, down 0.74 dollars. The price of lead concentrate 50% - 60% in Jiyuan is 16,303 yuan, up 274 yuan; the price of domestic recycled lead (≥98.5%) is 16,860 yuan/ton, down 90 yuan [3] Upstream Situation - The average operating rate of primary lead is 76.79%, up 2.96 percentage points; the weekly output of primary lead is 3.58 tons, up 0.01 tons. The processing fee of lead concentrate 60% at major ports is - 40 dollars/kiloton, unchanged. The ILZSG lead supply - demand balance is 16.4 thousand tons, up 48.8 thousand tons; the global lead ore output is 399.7 thousand tons, down 3.7 thousand tons. The lead ore import volume is 11.97 tons, up 2.48 tons [3] Industry Situation - The refined lead import volume is 815.37 tons, down 1,021.76 tons; the refined lead export volume is 2,109.62 tons, up 223.33 tons. The average domestic processing fee of lead concentrate to the factory is 640 yuan/ton, unchanged. The average price of waste batteries in the market is 10,151.79 yuan/ton, down 26.78 yuan [3] Downstream Situation - The export volume of batteries is 41,450 thousand units, down 425 thousand units. The average price of lead - antimony alloy (for batteries, containing 2% antimony) is 20,500 yuan/ton, unchanged. The Shenwan industry index of batteries and other power sources is 1,794.51 points, up 12.59 points. The monthly automobile output is 264.2 tons, up 3.8 tons; the monthly new - energy automobile output is 164.7 tons, up 7.3 tons [3] Industry News - US officials are seeking to narrow the scope of the trade agreement and strive to reach an agreement by July 9. India is seeking to reach a temporary trade agreement with the US this week. Trump's tariffs and low water levels have led to serious supply - chain congestion at European ports. Japan will not sacrifice its agricultural sector in trade negotiations with the US. Trump will send a letter on tariffs to Japan. The US agriculture secretary said Trump may exempt tariffs on agricultural products that are difficult to grow in the US [3] Viewpoint Summary - The Chicago business activity index in the US in June decreased slightly, and the Dallas Fed business activity index contracted for the fifth consecutive month. The operating rate and output of primary lead refineries increased due to the rising lead price. The loss pressure of recycled lead decreased, but the subsequent production increase of recycled lead is difficult due to the traditional off - season in the second quarter. The market trading is weak, and the support for lead prices is limited. The demand for charging piles and automobiles shows signs of slowing down. The overseas inventory declines again, and the domestic inventory declines slightly while the warehouse receipts increase. The lead concentrate processing fee starts to decline, which has a negative impact on the subsequent output of recycled lead and primary lead [3]