Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-07-01 09:28Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The textile industry's consumption off - season is evident, with poor new orders, a slow decline in overall operating rates, some spinning mills accumulating inventory, and poor profit margins, leading to cautious raw material procurement [2]. - The raw material inventory of textile enterprises remains stable. Cotton is in a de - stocking state, but the de - stocking speed is slow due to the consumption off - season, showing a slightly stronger overall oscillation. Weather and macro factors should be continuously monitored [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - Zhengzhou cotton's main contract closing price is 13,745 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan; cotton yarn's main contract closing price is 20,045 yuan/ton, up 55 yuan [2]. - The net position of the top 20 in cotton futures is - 27,960 lots, an increase of 5,817 lots; for cotton yarn futures, it is - 210 lots, an increase of 80 lots [2]. - The main contract position of cotton is 563,236 lots, a decrease of 11,709 lots; for cotton yarn, it is 22,023 lots, an increase of 247 lots [2]. - The cotton warehouse receipt quantity is 10,211 sheets, a decrease of 62 sheets; for cotton yarn, it is 2 sheets, unchanged [2]. - The China Cotton Price Index (CCIndex:3128B) is 15,212 yuan/ton, up 58 yuan; the China Yarn Price Index for pure - cotton carded yarn 32s is 20,420 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan [2]. Spot Market - The China Imported Cotton Price Index (FCIndexM:1% tariff) is 13,688 yuan/ton, a decrease of 221 yuan; the arrival price of imported cotton yarn price index for pure - cotton carded yarn 32s is 21,910 yuan/ton, a decrease of 23 yuan [2]. - The China Imported Cotton Price Index (FCIndexM: sliding - duty tax) is 14,409 yuan/ton; the arrival price of imported cotton yarn price index for pure - cotton combed yarn 32s is 23,698 yuan/ton, a decrease of 24 yuan [2]. Upstream Situation - The national cotton sowing area is 2,838.3 thousand hectares, an increase of 48.3 thousand hectares; the national cotton output is 6.16 million tons, an increase of 0.54 million tons [2]. Industry Situation - The cotton - yarn price difference is 5,208 yuan/ton, a decrease of 58 yuan; the national industrial inventory of cotton is 82.6 million tons, a decrease of 0.7 million tons [2]. - The monthly import volume of cotton is 40,000 tons, a decrease of 20,000 tons; the monthly import volume of cotton yarn is 100,000 tons, a decrease of 20,000 tons [2]. - The daily profit of imported cotton is 593 yuan/ton, a decrease of 23 yuan; the national commercial inventory of cotton is 345.87 million tons, a decrease of 69.39 million tons [2]. Downstream Situation - The yarn inventory days are 21.12 days, an increase of 0.14 days; the inventory days of grey cloth are 32.54 days, an increase of 1.37 days [2]. - The monthly cloth output is 2.67 billion meters, a decrease of 0.05 billion meters; the monthly yarn output is 1.951 million tons, a decrease of 0.036 million tons [2]. - The monthly export value of clothing and clothing accessories is 1,357,773,700 US dollars, an increase of 197,117,900 US dollars; the monthly export value of textile yarns, fabrics and products is 1,263,177,300 US dollars, an increase of 5,210,900 US dollars [2]. Option Market - The implied volatility of cotton at - the - money call options is 9.86%, an increase of 0.2%; the implied volatility of cotton at - the - money put options is 9.86%, an increase of 0.2% [2]. - The 20 - day historical volatility of cotton is 6.44%, a decrease of 0.16%; the 60 - day historical volatility of cotton is 12.81%, a decrease of 0.01% [2]. Industry News - The US Department of Agriculture's planting intention report shows that the expected cotton planting area in the US in 2025 is 10.12 million acres, higher than the previous market estimate of 9.735 million acres. The actual cotton planting area in the US in 2024 was 11.183 million acres [2].