瑞达期货玉米系产业日报-20250701

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Views of the Report - For corn, international price advantage exists, US output outlook is good due to increased planting area and good early - growth rate. In China, Northeast产区 has low remaining grain, strong bullish sentiment, high storage costs for traders, and low selling enthusiasm. Feed demand decreases as wheat is used as a substitute. The futures market is in a volatile state, and short - term participation is recommended [2][3] - For corn starch, production losses lead to low industry operating rates. Supported by reduced supply pressure and firm corn prices, the spot price performs well, and inventory continues to decline. The futures market is also volatile, and short - term participation is recommended [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - Corn: The closing price of the active contract is 2383 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton; the monthly spread (9 - 1) is 103 yuan/ton; the open interest of the active contract is 942750 hands, down 27780 hands; the net long position of the top 20 holders is - 42498 hands, down 6094 hands; the registered warehouse receipts are 210251 hands, down 2300 hands; the CS - C spread of the main contract is 360 yuan/ton [2] - Corn starch: The closing price of the active contract is 2743 yuan/ton, up 65 yuan/ton; the monthly spread (9 - 11) is 7 yuan/ton; the open interest of the active contract is 156387 hands, down 499 hands; the net long position of the top 20 holders is - 16519 hands, down 262 hands; the registered warehouse receipts are 23322 hands, down 500 hands [2] 3.2 Outer - market - CBOT corn: The closing price of the active contract is 409 cents/bushel, down 2.25 cents/bushel; the total open interest is 1534968 contracts, down 57509 contracts; the non - commercial net long position is - 23326 contracts, down 130570 contracts [2] 3.3 Spot Market - Corn: The average spot price is 2436.27 yuan/ton, up 3.92 yuan/ton; the FOB price at Jinzhou Port is 2380 yuan/ton, unchanged; the CIF price of imported corn is 1880.13 yuan/ton, down 19.71 yuan/ton; the international freight of imported corn is 43 US dollars/ton, up 2 US dollars/ton; the basis of the main contract is - 1.08 yuan/ton [2] - Corn starch: The ex - factory price in Changchun is 2720 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Weifang is 2940 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Shijiazhuang is 2880 yuan/ton, unchanged; the basis of the main contract is - 13 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton; the spread between Shandong starch and corn is 420 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton [2] - Substitute products: The average spot price of wheat is 2451 yuan/ton, up 1.28 yuan/ton; the spread between tapioca starch and corn starch is 133 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan/ton; the spread between corn starch and 30 - powder is 25 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan/ton [2] 3.4 Upstream Situation - Planting area: The predicted planting area of corn in the US is 401.85 million hectares, up 24.22 million hectares; in Brazil is 35.37 million hectares, up 1.82 million hectares; in Argentina is not provided; in China is 295 million hectares, up 0.08 million hectares; in Ukraine is not provided [2] - Yield: The predicted yield of corn in the US is 131 million tons, up 5 million tons; in Brazil is 22.6 million tons, up 0.3 million tons; in Argentina is 7.5 million tons, up 1.1 million tons; in China is 30.5 million tons, up 3.7 million tons; in Ukraine is not provided [2] - Inventory: The inventory of corn in southern ports is 113.3 million tons, down 0.2 million tons; the inventory of deep - processed corn is 456.7 million tons, down 2.5 million tons; the inventory of corn in northern ports is 371 million tons, down 11 million tons [2] 3.5 Industry Situation - Import and export: The monthly import volume of corn is 19 million tons, up 1 million tons; the monthly export volume of corn starch is 27.78 million tons, up 4.06 million tons [2] - Production: The monthly production of feed is 2762.1 million tons, up 98.1 million tons; the processing profit of corn starch in Shandong is - 105 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton; in Hebei is - 47 yuan/ton, down 16 yuan/ton; in Jilin is - 86 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] 3.6 Downstream Situation - Feed: The inventory days of sample feed corn is 32.59 days, down 0.48 days; the consumption of deep - processed corn is 118.92 million tons, up 1.3 million tons [2] - Alcohol and starch enterprises: The operating rate of alcohol enterprises is 46.18%, up 2.38%; the operating rate of starch enterprises is 51.15%, down 0.47% [2] 3.7 Option Market - Corn: The 20 - day historical volatility is 6.51%, down 0.1%; the 60 - day historical volatility is 6.63%, down 0.04%; the implied volatility of at - the - money call options is 10.54%, up 0.29%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 10.54%, up 0.29% [2] 3.8 Industry News - As of June 27, the harvest progress of Brazil's second - season corn has reached 19.46% of the expected total planting area, lower than 47.14% in the same period last year due to late sowing and wet weather [2] - As of the week ending June 26, 2025, the US corn export inspection volume was 1369961 tons, compared with the revised 1504057 tons last week and 831219 tons in the same period last year [2] - The US Department of Agriculture's planting area report shows that the corn planting area in the US in 2025 is 95.2 million acres, slightly lower than the 95.3 million acres estimated in March but 5% higher than in 2024. The quarterly grain inventory report shows that the US corn inventory in the quarter ending June 1, 2025, is 4.644 billion bushels, close to market expectations and 7% lower than in the same period last year [2]